41 Pine Dr · South Cairo, NY 12482

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1998 Poor condition 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Cash only sale offered as an assignment of contract. 10 percent earnest money deposit is due at signing. Listing agent holds ownership interest.

Key facts

• 2.2 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cairo-Durham Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 439 students, 60% FRL); Cairo-Durham Middle School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 256 students, 62% FRL); Cairo-Durham High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 325 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.04%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,552
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Ross Ruland Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-8%)	20mo	$257,500	$192	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $84,111
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.16×
• Total profit: $198,375
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12482

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $1,133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,167	+0% $1,133	+5% $1,099	+10% $1,064
Rent	-10% $951	-5% $1,042	+0% $1,133	+5% $1,224	+10% $1,315
Rate	-1.0pp $1,183	-0.5pp $1,158	base $1,133	+0.5pp $1,107	+1.0pp $1,081

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Garcia Ln Leeds, NY	2.0	1.0	948	$2,300	$2.43	15d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $12,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,067
• After-tax cash flow: $10,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Missing appliances.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Missing fixtures.
• Major Exterior siding — Missing siding.
• Major Flooring — Missing tiles.
• Major Interior walls/paint — Missing paint.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown grass and debris.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clean and paint the interior — A clean and painted interior will attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Replace missing appliances and fixtures — A fully functional kitchen and bathroom will attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Repair and replace missing siding — A properly maintained exterior will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Replace missing flooring — A properly maintained flooring will improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home.
• Both Paint interior walls — A properly painted interior will improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home.
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — A properly maintained landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Missing appliances.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Missing fixtures.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Missing siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Missing tiles.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Missing paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and debris.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clean and paint the interior — A clean and painted interior will attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Replace missing appliances and fixtures — A fully functional kitchen and bathroom will attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Repair and replace missing siding — A properly maintained exterior will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Replace missing flooring — A properly maintained flooring will improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — A properly painted interior will improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home. ↑
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — A properly maintained landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Cairo, NY
• City population: 601
• Population (ZIP): 601

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $99,000 Global MLS