77 Bavarian Hill Rd · Narrowsburg, NY 18405

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1993 1.09 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 77 Bavarian Hill Rd. in beautiful Beach Lake! Nestled on over an acre of secluded property along a quiet country road, this home offers privacy, peace, and endless potential. Featuring a new roof, vinyl siding, and a full basement with washer/dryer hookup, many of the important basics are already in place. The main level is framed and ready for 3 bedrooms & 1 full bath but has been mostly gutted, creating a blank canvas ready for your vision and finishing touches. Whether you're a contractor, investor, or handy buyer looking to build sweat equity, this property is packed with possibilities. Restore, redesign, or reimagine this home into the country retreat you've

Key facts

• Quiet country road
• Washer dryer hookup
• Full basement

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• FULL BASEMENT
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUP
• SECLUDED PROPERTY
• QUIET COUNTRY ROAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residential house; One level; Property is attached
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built on a 1.09-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; Has a view; Sloped front yard with gentle slope; Dirt road frontage (unimproved)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Full basement with walk-out access and block construction
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.7% in Narrowsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,108 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Wayne Highlands SD (town): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #115 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $175k implies a 1358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,842 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $68,879
• Equity at exit: $144,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $211,052
• Equity at exit: $297,223

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18405

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,424/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $137,140

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $180,000 Active
16. 1991-06-25
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,691 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,424
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Highlands SD
• NCES district ID: 4224970
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2292
• State rank: #115 of 539 in PA

Livability — Narrowsburg

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #22694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,611

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scottish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.92%
• Current HPI: 333.3408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1400.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $180,000 PWMLS
• 1991-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,424 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.