12403 Spottswood Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$425,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale: Active With Contract: This 2008 modular home located on 1 acre of land shows like a model. Experience the open floor plan that leads through the living room with a beautiful wood burning fire place into the gourmet kitchen that is designed for a chef. The kitchen has wooden cabinets, stainless steel appliances, flat top stove, a separate wall oven, a large island that adds lots of extra counter space and more! Includes a den that can be used for an office, study, or play room. An extra-largemaster suite that has huge walk in closet, double sinks, garden tub, and separate shower. Walk out the sliding glass doors to relax by the private in ground pool that has no back neighbors for all your privacy needs! Come see today before you miss out onthis great deal!

Key facts

• Built 2008
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $425k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,737 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-62,765
• Equity at exit: $94,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-71,896
• Equity at exit: $91,686

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,959/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,252

Max offer price $376,903

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13144 Peachleaf Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,995	$1.62	5d	1	0.75mi
12423 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,500	$1.23	24d	1	0.78mi
12337 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,200	$1.15	5d	1	0.93mi
12544 Shining Willow St Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2035	$3,000	$1.47	3d	1	0.94mi
13204 Great Plains Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,990	$1.55	5d	1	0.95mi
12311 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2575	$2,600	$1.01	24d	1	0.96mi
12311 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2575	$2,600	$1.01	15d	1	0.96mi
13259 Palmerston Rd Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2633	$2,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.99mi
11729 Winterset Cove Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2040	$2,745	$1.35	3d	1	1.01mi
13337 Woodworth Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,850	$1.48	18d	1	1.05mi
11404 Sweet Fern Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1864	$1,500	$0.80	18d	1	1.09mi
12737 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2470	$3,350	$1.36	18d	1	1.11mi
12811 Twin Bridges Dr Unit Labs Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2937	$3,250	$1.11	18d	1	1.20mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1908	$2,459	$1.29	5d	1	1.23mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	12d	1	1.29mi
12181 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,500	$1.07	24d	1	1.30mi
12330 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$3,300	$1.40	5d	1	1.32mi
12250 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,950	$1.46	18d	1	1.33mi
12219 Fairlawn Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2498	$2,650	$1.06	18d	1	1.33mi
12892 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,931	$1.16	17d	1	1.33mi
12153 White Cypress Pl Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,500	$1.07	18d	1	1.38mi
11302 Hoot Owl Ct Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2653	$3,000	$1.13	24d	1	1.39mi
11608 Cleyera Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,850	$1.14	5d	1	1.40mi
12072 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2328	$2,500	$1.07	24d	1	1.41mi
12377 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,800	$1.16	24d	1	1.43mi
12201 Matchfield Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,595	$1.05	18d	1	1.47mi
13314 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $425,000 Active 154-char remark
16. 2013-06-25
    soldstatus $92,100
17. 2013-06-19
    soldstatus $92,000 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    Short Sale: Active With Contract: This 2008 modular home located on 1 acre of land shows like a model. Experience the open floor plan that leads through the living room with a beautiful wood burning fire place into the gourmet kitchen that is designed for a chef. The kitchen has wooden cabinets, stainless steel appliances, flat top stove, a separate wall oven, a large island that adds lots of extra counter space and more! Includes a den that can be used for an office, study, or play room. An extra-largemaster suite that has huge walk in closet, double sinks, garden tub, and separate shower. Walk out the sliding glass doors to relax by the private in ground pool that has no back neighbors for all your privacy needs! Come see today before you miss out onthis great deal!

18. 2012-07-30
    listed $110,000 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    Short Sale: Active With Contract: This 2008 modular home located on 1 acre of land shows like a model. Experience the open floor plan that leads through the living room with a beautiful wood burning fire place into the gourmet kitchen that is designed for a chef. The kitchen has wooden cabinets, stainless steel appliances, flat top stove, a separate wall oven, a large island that adds lots of extra counter space and more! Includes a den that can be used for an office, study, or play room. An extra-largemaster suite that has huge walk in closet, double sinks, garden tub, and separate shower. Walk out the sliding glass doors to relax by the private in ground pool that has no back neighbors for all your privacy needs! Come see today before you miss out onthis great deal!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,959 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,568/yr (+$131/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,959
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,791
• − Management: −$2,791
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $-640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $425,000 FSBO.com
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $92,100 Public Records
• 2013-06-19 Sold (MLS) $92,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-30 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,959 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.