111 Nicholas Ct · Poinciana, FL 34758

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,329 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1988 7,710 sqft lot Est $245k · 41% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly painted 1 year ago, new roof and tile floors.

Key facts

• 7,710 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• NEARBY RECREATIONAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoning: OPUD
• Financial info: Monthly HOA amount: $100; Total monthly fees reported as $100 and total annual fees reported as $1,200; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $100 (association: Poinciana Villages/Dulce Maestry); Community pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: No water source specified; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.18-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Academy of Fine Arts (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 66% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 611 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $145k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Dalton Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+1%)	7mo	$125,000	$93	84
49 Dorset Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+0%)	15mo	$285,000	$214	76
52 York Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,329 (0%)	3mo	$225,000	$169	75
909 Hendon Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+3%)	2mo	$300,000	$219	73
52 Dorset Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+9%)	2mo	$316,600	$218	73
107 Whitehall Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-6%)	5mo	$227,000	$181	68
904 San Carlos Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+8%)	5mo	$250,000	$174	64
313 Greenwich Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+10%)	11mo	$270,000	$184	58
920 San Carlos Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+13%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	54
149 Birmingham Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+9%)	12mo	$250,000	$173	51
916 Derbyshire Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-12%)	13mo	$250,000	$214	50
2 Peterlee Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+7%)	16mo	$269,000	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,023
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,750
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,388/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $428	+0% $387	+5% $346	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $307	+0% $387	+5% $466	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $424	base $387	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Dorchester Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,644	$1.24	0d	1	0.04mi
117 Dorchester Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1705	$2,010	$1.18	6d	1	0.09mi
7 Dorset Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,650	$1.24	19d	1	0.14mi
240 Grifford Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,720	$1.44	9d	1	0.19mi
126 Briarcliff Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,965	$1.18	0d	1	0.19mi
131 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,250	$1.35	25d	1	0.28mi
122 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,819	$1.24	0d	1	0.30mi
201 Great Yarmouth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.31mi
812 Glastonbury Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,700	$1.49	5d	1	0.37mi
906 Dartmouth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,909	$1.15	4d	1	0.40mi
929 Gateshead Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,795	$1.17	0d	1	0.43mi
820 Grantham Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,300	$1.66	25d	1	0.46mi
939 Stockport Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,999	$1.07	6d	1	0.47mi
939 Halifax Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,650	$1.12	25d	1	0.48mi
907 Salerno Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,799	$1.64	25d	1	0.49mi
919 Cumbran Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,890	$1.12	12d	1	0.52mi
919 Cumbran Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,890	$1.12	25d	1	0.52mi
818 San Jose Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,690	$1.40	19d	1	0.53mi
826 San Jose Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,110	$1.16	16d	1	0.58mi
611 Baldwin Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,950	$1.46	4d	1	0.61mi
501 Bristol Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,260	$1.35	21d	1	0.64mi
913 San Rafael Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,800	$1.35	9d	1	0.66mi
37 Peterlee Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	19d	1	0.66mi
220 Canterbury Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,650	$1.16	25d	1	0.69mi
220 Canterbury Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,700	$1.19	9d	1	0.69mi
250 Canterbury Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,919	$1.13	25d	1	0.78mi
604 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1739	$1,945	$1.12	25d	1	0.80mi
651 Mercado Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	5d	1	0.82mi
232 Cobalt Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,890	$1.17	3d	1	0.84mi
1126 Chichester Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.85mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	3d	1	0.86mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	25d	1	0.86mi
624 Mercado Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,400	$1.44	25d	1	0.88mi
205 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,700	$1.18	0d	1	0.90mi
295 Cobalt Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1323	$1,600	$1.21	25d	1	0.91mi
211 Cobalt Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,830	$1.30	25d	1	0.95mi
433 Bloomfield Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,120	$1.17	0d	1	0.95mi
1141 Doncaster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,719	$1.48	4d	1	0.98mi
1109 Cambourne Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,495	$1.40	15d	1	0.98mi
402 Bridgewater Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1510	$1,700	$1.13	0d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,388 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,388 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,388
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $4,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-27 Price Changed $88,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-08 Price Changed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-18 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-08 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Listed $117,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2006-04-07 Sold (MLS) $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-02 Listed $191,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,388 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.