16873 Ferguson St · Detroit, MI 48235

$99,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1940 3,920 sqft lot $88/sqft · 8% below area Est $109k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring 1,134 sq ft. Vacant and ready for its next owner. Home offers a practical layout with spacious bedrooms and plenty of natural light. Well-maintained with solid fundamentals and strong rental or owner-occupant potential. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value. Sold as-is. BATVAI.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 132 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,601/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 3064% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.73%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,152
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16818 Gilchrist St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (+5%)	3mo	$83,000	$70	80
17540 Asbury Park St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-3%)	4mo	$57,500	$52	70
16709 Lindsay St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (+7%)	2mo	$124,888	$103	69
16727 Mansfield St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,207 (+6%)	3mo	$165,000	$137	68
16199 Ferguson St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (+5%)	4mo	$85,000	$71	67
18239 Saint Marys St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (+0%)	1mo	$124,900	$110	65
18217 Archdale St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,085 (-4%)	0mo	$82,000	$76	56
15508 Saint Marys St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-3%)	0mo	$59,900	$54	55
15800 Biltmore St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,188 (+5%)	3mo	$112,000	$94	52
15725 Asbury Park	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (+6%)	2mo	$80,200	$67	47
15771 Rutherford St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,289 (+14%)	1mo	$55,106	$43	40
15727 Mansfield St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+15%)	3mo	$55,000	$42	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $15,092
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $54,807
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48235

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,577/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16876 Harlow Ave Unit (NO) Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.27mi
16535 Asbury Park Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,450	$1.26	24d	1	0.29mi
16210 Ferguson St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1493	$1,750	$1.17	3d	1	0.34mi
17165 Prevost St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,400	$2.26	1d	1	0.34mi
16837 Winthrop St Detroit, MI	5.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	19d	1	0.46mi
15866 Mansfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1324	$1,425	$1.08	24d	1	0.55mi
15736 Biltmore St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.66mi
15752 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,386	$1.18	4d	1	0.70mi
18400 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	3d	1	0.74mi
16823 Stahelin Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,600	$1.07	17d	1	0.87mi
17654 Greenview Ave Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1377	$1,350	$0.98	16d	1	0.87mi
15375 Prevost St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	907	$1,300	$1.43	16d	1	0.89mi
15332 Saint Marys St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	16d	1	0.91mi
16151 Robson St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	14d	1	0.93mi
18494 Ashton Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	16d	1	0.93mi
18675 Forrer St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	4d	1	0.96mi
18481 Prest St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	19d	1	0.96mi
15065 Gilchrist St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	0.96mi
17654 Sunderland Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.02mi
15810 Robson St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	1.03mi
17238 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	43d	1	1.04mi
16014 Hackett St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,500	$1.31	43d	1	1.18mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	1.21mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	24d	1	1.21mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	12d	1	1.21mi
15328 Coyle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	1.21mi
15341 Lauder St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1080	$1,475	$1.37	16d	1	1.27mi
18452 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	927	$1,500	$1.62	16d	1	1.28mi
18964 Coyle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	2d	1	1.28mi
18257 Mark Twain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,507	$1.27	16d	1	1.31mi
15762 Mark Twain St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,250	$0.87	16d	1	1.32mi
14893 Prest St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	1.33mi
19400 Harlow St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1298	$1,275	$0.98	16d	1	1.34mi
19440 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.37mi
15829 Minock St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	24d	1	1.38mi
18659 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	763	$1,373	$1.80	12d	1	1.39mi
19467 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	1.40mi
16505 Stansbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	10d	1	1.40mi
19503 Mansfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	16d	1	1.42mi
18450 Edinborough Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,999 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,999 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-04-04
    price $99,999 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Solid 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring 1,134 sq ft. Vacant and ready for its next owner. Home offers a practical layout with spacious bedrooms and plenty of natural light. Well-maintained with solid fundamentals and strong rental or owner-occupant potential. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value. Sold as-is. BATVAI.

14. 2026-04-03
    price $99,999 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Solid 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring 1,134 sq ft. Vacant and ready for its next owner. Home offers a practical layout with spacious bedrooms and plenty of natural light. Well-maintained with solid fundamentals and strong rental or owner-occupant potential. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value. Sold as-is. BATVAI.

15. 2026-02-06
    listed $110,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Solid 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring 1,134 sq ft. Vacant and ready for its next owner. Home offers a practical layout with spacious bedrooms and plenty of natural light. Well-maintained with solid fundamentals and strong rental or owner-occupant potential. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value. Sold as-is. BATVAI.

16. 2026-02-05
    listed $110,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Solid 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring 1,134 sq ft. Vacant and ready for its next owner. Home offers a practical layout with spacious bedrooms and plenty of natural light. Well-maintained with solid fundamentals and strong rental or owner-occupant potential. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for value. Sold as-is. BATVAI.

17. 2024-03-08
    historical $1,200
18. 2024-01-30
    listed $1,200
19. 2022-08-17
    soldstatus $72,000
20. 2018-12-07
    soldstatus $70,100
21. 2018-04-03
    status Pending
22. 2018-04-03
    status Pending
23. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $15,000 Sold
24. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $15,000 Closed
25. 2018-02-07
    price $25,900
26. 2018-02-06
    price $25,900
27. 2017-05-03
    status Active
28. 2017-05-02
    status Active
29. 2017-04-12
    status Pending
30. 2017-04-12
    status Pending
31. 2017-02-23
    listed $29,900 Active
32. 2017-02-23
    listed $29,900 Active
33. 2016-03-10
    historical
34. 2016-03-10
    historical
35. 2016-01-14
    price $34,900
36. 2015-06-25
    listed $36,000 Active
37. 2015-06-24
    listed $34,900
38. 2012-11-26
    soldstatus $6,000
39. 2012-11-26
    soldstatus $6,000
40. 2012-11-19
    historical
41. 2012-11-19
    historical
42. 2012-07-24
    listed $6,900
43. 2012-07-24
    listed $6,900
44. 2008-11-17
    soldstatus $10,000
45. 2008-11-07
    soldstatus $10,000
46. 2008-10-08
    historical
47. 2008-09-22
    listed $12,997
48. 2008-09-22
    listed $12,997
49. 2005-08-16
    historical
50. 2005-06-15
    listed $107,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,577
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $4,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 45,600
• Household income: $39,265
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3064.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.02%
• Current HPI: 263.6326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.25%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+47.1% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $99,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $99,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-06 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-05 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-08 Rental Removed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,100 Public Records
• 2018-04-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-04-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-07 Price Changed $25,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-06 Price Changed $25,900 REALCOMP
• 2017-05-03 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-02 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-04-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-23 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-23 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-03-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-01-14 Price Changed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-25 Listed $36,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-24 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-11-26 Sold (MLS) $6,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-11-26 Sold (MLS) $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-11-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-11-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-07-24 Listed $6,900 REALCOMP
• 2012-07-24 Listed $6,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-17 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-07 Sold (MLS) $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-09-22 Listed $12,997 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-22 Listed $12,997 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-06-15 Listed $107,500 REALCOMP
• 2001-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1999-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-27 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-11-19 Listed $68,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,577 · -37.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.