1034 Shades Ln · Cumberland, MD 21502

$94,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1912 0.44 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper - bring your tools, ideas and renovate this home. Spacious house features off street parking, rear deck over looking the back yard. Located close to I-68 for traveling and convenient access to the new hospital. Priced to move!

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1912
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed with no restrictions; Above-grade finished area reported (assessor): 1,764 sq.ft.; Total below-grade area reported as 0

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Other parking type
• Utilities: Public water; Hot water: Other; Cooling fuel: Other; Heating fuel: Other
• Home design: Detached property; Two floors in unit; Entry level: 1; Ownership: Fee simple; Property condition: Major rehab needed; Year built (estimated)
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Architectural shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Other structures above and below grade; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Paved parking; Tidal water: None; Location is suburban; GPS-friendly directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper/main living level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Cooling: Other (unspecified); Heating fuel: Other (unspecified)
• Interior features: Attic; Basement (other type)
• Laundry & utility: Hot water: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $94k implies a 437% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,590 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.46%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1026 Shades Ln	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,674 (-5%)	16mo	$183,500	$110	75
519 Forester Ave	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,732 (-2%)	2mo	$170,000	$98	63
720 Yale St	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,656 (-6%)	8mo	$250,000	$151	61
10001 Carrington Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+1%)	15mo	$431,050	$243	60
1039 Myrtle St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-15%)	12mo	$175,000	$117	47
517 Linden St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+6%)	5mo	$87,000	$46	47
5 Weber St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,656 (-6%)	20mo	$65,000	$39	45
712 Lincoln St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-13%)	10mo	$165,000	$108	42
10013 Carrington Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,979 (+12%)	15mo	$420,435	$212	41
10007 Carrington Ct	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,916 (+9%)	17mo	$440,179	$230	39
1508 Frederick St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,519 (-14%)	18mo	$175,000	$115	38
718 Bedford St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,520 (-14%)	20mo	$130,000	$86	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $15,042
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $73,717
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Bedford St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,195	$0.80	43d	1	0.72mi
118 Independence St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,250	$0.99	44d	1	0.94mi
423 Furnace St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	1.09mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1C Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	43d	1	1.28mi
201 Spring St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1332	$950	$0.71	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 443-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $94,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 83.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$1,136
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $3,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$750
• After-tax cash flow: $3,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+370.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $94,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-22 Sold (MLS) $17,500 MRIS
• 2017-09-22 Sold (MLS) $17,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-08-10 Listed $20,000 MRIS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.