56 Judy Dr · St. Charles, MO 63301

$157,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1951 0.49 ac lot Est $269k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level living never looked so good as it does with this move-in ready ranch on almost half an acre. With 3 bedrooms, and a sizeable full bath, this home offers great relaxing spaces, a woodburning fireplace and a lot to love in just over 1300 square feet. A covered deck gives you a great space to enjoy your large private yard with mature trees for quiet evenings or great morning coffee. A 2 year old roof, 2 car garage with oversized off-street parking and freshly painted interior only add to this home's appeal.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Tile floors
• Deep back yard

Tags

• SOLAR
• TILE FLOORS
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED DECK
• FIREPLACE
• DEEP BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Monroe Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 388 students, 53% FRL); St. Charles High (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #153 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 817 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,645 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,468
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Judy Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,334 (0%)	1mo	$157,000	$118	99
708 Maran Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	5mo	$274,900	$203	80
24 James Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	13mo	$214,900	$157	76
34 James Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (+13%)	3mo	$249,000	$166	63
625 Nancy Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-14%)	2mo	$255,000	$223	58
1101 Olde Coventry Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (-2%)	13mo	$289,900	$222	56
76 Ruth Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+2%)	3mo	$265,000	$194	56
9 Mallard Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+5%)	7mo	$260,000	$185	54
2532 Chartom Mar Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-6%)	7mo	$269,000	$213	53
808 Ruth Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+5%)	10mo	$280,000	$200	47
2602 Nettie Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,190 (-11%)	8mo	$250,000	$210	45
417 Dove Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+11%)	8mo	$300,000	$202	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,089
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,950
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63301

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,906/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2680 Droste Rd St Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	1260	$1,715	$1.36	1d	2	0.16mi
1300 Sun Lake Dr St Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,510	$1.79	1d	12	0.39mi
920 Parkcrest Dr Unit 920 St Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,400	$1.40	16d	1	0.88mi
820 Saint Charles Ave Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,800	$1.40	43d	1	1.00mi
2483 Falcons Way Saint Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,400	$1.33	43d	1	1.00mi
2200 Lake Ct St Charles, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	784	$1,749	$2.23	1d	15	1.06mi
3405 Sherman Park Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,195	$1.37	1d	1	1.28mi
2000 Sherman Square Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,612	$1.48	1d	3	1.32mi
10 San Miguel Dr St Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	897	$1,794	$2.00	1d	13	1.47mi
1400 Aberdeen Ct Saint Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,994	$2.10	1d	25	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $157,000 Active
3. 2021-10-08
   price $189,000
4. 2019-04-03
   soldstatus $150,000
5. 2019-03-29
   soldstatus Closed 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   One level living never looked so good as it does with this move-in ready ranch on almost half an acre. With 3 bedrooms, and a sizeable full bath, this home offers great relaxing spaces, a woodburning fireplace and a lot to love in just over 1300 square feet. A covered deck gives you a great space to enjoy your large private yard with mature trees for quiet evenings or great morning coffee. A 2 year old roof, 2 car garage with oversized off-street parking and freshly painted interior only add to this home's appeal.

6. 2019-02-17
   status Pending 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   One level living never looked so good as it does with this move-in ready ranch on almost half an acre. With 3 bedrooms, and a sizeable full bath, this home offers great relaxing spaces, a woodburning fireplace and a lot to love in just over 1300 square feet. A covered deck gives you a great space to enjoy your large private yard with mature trees for quiet evenings or great morning coffee. A 2 year old roof, 2 car garage with oversized off-street parking and freshly painted interior only add to this home's appeal.

7. 2019-02-07
   listed $150,000 Active 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   One level living never looked so good as it does with this move-in ready ranch on almost half an acre. With 3 bedrooms, and a sizeable full bath, this home offers great relaxing spaces, a woodburning fireplace and a lot to love in just over 1300 square feet. A covered deck gives you a great space to enjoy your large private yard with mature trees for quiet evenings or great morning coffee. A 2 year old roof, 2 car garage with oversized off-street parking and freshly painted interior only add to this home's appeal.

8. 2017-04-25
   soldstatus $147,000
9. 2017-04-21
   soldstatus Closed
10. 2017-04-18
    status Pending
11. 2017-03-23
    historical Contingent (No Kickout)
12. 2017-02-08
    price $147,000
13. 2016-12-19
    listed $149,000 Active
14. 2009-10-29
    soldstatus $123,000
15. 2009-07-10
    soldstatus
16. 2006-05-23
    soldstatus $115,000
17. 1997-04-01
    soldstatus
18. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $57,500
19. 1990-08-01
    soldstatus $50,000
20. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,906
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Charles R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2928920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,897
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3486
• State rank: #51 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Charles, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 52,667
• Household income: $85,308
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -289.53%
• Current HPI: 221.0637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+170.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $157,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Price Changed $189,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-07 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-23 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-08 Price Changed $147,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-19 Listed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,906 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.