The Monroe Plan · Montgomery, TX 77316

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Good condition $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do Not Miss The Monroe, a stunning, modern 1 story, 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen.

Key facts

• Listed 150 days

🏗️ New construction. The $169,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,741.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,741
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -23.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
286 Carriage Trl	0.26mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,127 (+1%)	2mo	$399,900	$188	77
103 Forest Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,090 (-0%)	1mo	$429,900	$206	69
107 Forest Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (-2%)	2mo	$304,000	$148	65
107 Greenbriar Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-14%)	0mo	$259,900	$144	56
75 April Wind Dr S	0.41mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,292 (+9%)	1mo	$459,000	$200	56
100 April Breeze St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,190 (+4%)	3mo	$399,000	$182	54
209 April Waters Dr W	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (-15%)	0mo	$324,900	$182	53
106 Harbour Town Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (-7%)	2mo	$310,000	$159	51
101 Fairway View Ct	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,905 (-9%)	3mo	$379,500	$199	46
268 Springs Edge Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,263 (+8%)	5mo	$375,000	$166	44
171 April Cv	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,797 (-14%)	4mo	$239,999	$134	44
130 April Cv	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,786 (-15%)	5mo	$289,000	$162	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,137
• Equity at exit: $33,062

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,344
• Equity at exit: $19,172

Cash invested: $62,087 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,000 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -35.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,163
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,326/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,980

Max offer price $221,741

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $222	+0% $145	+5% $69	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $60	+0% $145	+5% $231	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $202	base $145	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,435
• Closing costs: $6,652
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	93d	1	0.38mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	93d	1	0.77mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	93d	1	0.78mi
62 April Point Dr S Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.5	2153	$1,850	$0.86	73d	1	0.83mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	93d	1	0.98mi
112 Golfview Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.5	2290	$1,701	$0.74	0d	1	1.10mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	93d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $169,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-07-24
   days on market $169,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-07-23
   days on market $169,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-07-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-07-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-07-20
   days on market $169,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $169,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $169,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-07-15
    days on market $169,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-07-14
    days on market $169,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-07-11
    days on market $169,900 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $169,900 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-07-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $169,900 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,900 Active 117 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $169,900 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $169,900 Active 111 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $169,900 Active 110 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $169,900 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $169,900 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $169,900 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $169,900 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 90 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 89 DOM
48. 2026-03-27
    price $169,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Monroe, a stunning, modern 1 story, 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen.

49. 2026-03-03
    listed $156,900 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Monroe, a stunning, modern 1 story, 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,421
• − Property taxes: −$3,326
• − Insurance: −$1,109
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,451
• Taxable loss: −$1,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $2,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,500–$31,500 screening

The Monroe Plan is a well-maintained, modern single-family home with a good condition score. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $169,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Listed $156,900 Zillow