1173 Celosia Loop · Uhland, TX 78640

$251,720

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $133/sqft · 5% below area Est $266k · 5% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESTIMATED COMPLETION JULY. Images representative of plan only and may vary when built. Check out the Periwinkle floor plan features in our Marigold community in Kyle, TX. The Periwinkle is a 1,892 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom two-story home. Entering the home you step into the open foyer with access to the secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Walking further into the home you are greeted by the spacious kitchen overlooking the dining area and living room. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and much more. The private main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room and includes an ensuite with a huge walk-in closet and walk-in shower. Making your way upstairs you will find the additional 2 bedrooms along with a third full bathroom. The Periwinkle also includes our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, a Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious kitchen
• Marigold community

Tags

• PERIWINKLE FLOOR PLAN
• MARIGOLD COMMUNITY
• OPEN FOYER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-345/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Uhland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,702 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,033
• List price: $251,720
• Delta: -5.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-48,428
• Equity at exit: $37,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-66,985
• Equity at exit: $21,764

Cash invested: $70,482 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,320
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $246,639

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $42	+0% $-29	+5% $-100	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-106	+0% $-29	+5% $49	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $35	base $-29	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,930
• Closing costs: $7,552
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	18d	1	0.67mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	0d	1	0.71mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	26d	1	0.78mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	26d	1	0.79mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	45d	1	0.79mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,464	$1.00	0d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   price $251,720 1004-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

   ESTIMATED COMPLETION JULY. Images representative of plan only and may vary when built. Check out the Periwinkle floor plan features in our Marigold community in Kyle, TX. The Periwinkle is a 1,892 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom two-story home. Entering the home you step into the open foyer with access to the secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Walking further into the home you are greeted by the spacious kitchen overlooking the dining area and living room. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and much more. The private main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room and includes an ensuite with a huge walk-in closet and walk-in shower. Making your way upstairs you will find the additional 2 bedrooms along with a third full bathroom. The Periwinkle also includes our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, a Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

2. 2026-04-25
   price $251,720 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Check out 1173 Celosia Loop in our Marigold community in Kyle, TX. The Periwinkle is a 1,892 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom two-story home. Entering the home you step into the open foyer with access to the secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Walking further into the home you are greeted by the spacious kitchen overlooking the dining area and living room. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and much more. The private main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room and includes an ensuite with a huge walk-in closet and walk-in shower. Making your way upstairs you will find the additional 2 bedrooms along with a third full bathroom. The Periwinkle also includes our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Marigold.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $259,720 Active 1004-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

   ESTIMATED COMPLETION JULY. Images representative of plan only and may vary when built. Check out the Periwinkle floor plan features in our Marigold community in Kyle, TX. The Periwinkle is a 1,892 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom two-story home. Entering the home you step into the open foyer with access to the secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Walking further into the home you are greeted by the spacious kitchen overlooking the dining area and living room. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and much more. The private main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room and includes an ensuite with a huge walk-in closet and walk-in shower. Making your way upstairs you will find the additional 2 bedrooms along with a third full bathroom. The Periwinkle also includes our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, a Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $259,720 Active 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Check out 1173 Celosia Loop in our Marigold community in Kyle, TX. The Periwinkle is a 1,892 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom two-story home. Entering the home you step into the open foyer with access to the secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Walking further into the home you are greeted by the spacious kitchen overlooking the dining area and living room. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and much more. The private main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room and includes an ensuite with a huge walk-in closet and walk-in shower. Making your way upstairs you will find the additional 2 bedrooms along with a third full bathroom. The Periwinkle also includes our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Marigold.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,606 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,528/yr (+$294/mo · 327.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,100
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$1,259
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,323
• Taxable loss: −$4,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $251,720 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $251,720 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Listed $259,720 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $259,720 Zillow

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,078 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.