615 E 14th St · Okmulgee, OK 74447

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

Key facts

• New water heater
• 2 central h a units
• Built 2021

Tags

• NEW SEWER AND GAS LINES
• NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• NEW WATER HEATER
• 2 CENTRAL H A UNITS
• EXTERIOR RECENTLY PAINTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($928 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 7.5% in Okmulgee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#300 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Okmulgee (town): math 3% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #264 of 270 in OK (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.73%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 S Morton Ave	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,652 (+6%)	0mo	$129,000	$78	64
815 S Severs St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,384 (-11%)	18mo	$37,000	$27	62
508 Emerson Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,407 (-10%)	12mo	$140,000	$100	59
1005 Valley Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+8%)	12mo	$225,000	$134	58
1313 E 11th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-4%)	7mo	$165,000	$110	57
515 S Seminole Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+1%)	14mo	$125,000	$79	56
803 Moreland Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (+10%)	13mo	$85,000	$50	54
916 S Okmulgee Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,518 (-3%)	6mo	$63,000	$42	53
1324 E Hickory St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,679 (+8%)	10mo	$133,000	$79	48
1327 E 10th St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+10%)	6mo	$140,000	$82	46
421 S Seminole Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,626 (+4%)	21mo	$10,000	$6	45
1218 E 7th St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,746 (+12%)	12mo	$185,000	$106	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $21,944
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $56,731
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74447

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $232/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $347

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $472	+0% $459	+5% $446	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $423	+0% $459	+5% $496	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $471	base $459	+0.5pp $448	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 W 8th St Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	1084	$850	$0.78	3d	1	1.12mi
118 N Taft Ave Okmulgee, OK	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,000	$0.83	15d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $45,000 Active
17. 2026-02-14
    historical
18. 2026-02-09
    price $99,900
19. 2026-02-06
    price $119,900
20. 2026-01-22
    listed $129,900 Active
21. 2025-06-04
    soldstatus $79,000 Closed 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

22. 2025-03-25
    status Pending 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

23. 2025-03-04
    price $92,400 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

24. 2025-01-31
    price $97,280 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

25. 2025-01-02
    listed $102,400 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Historic style home in the heart of Okmulgee. .. hardwood floors throughout. .. downstairs features a large living room with formal dining, kitchen, half bath and very large utility/mud room. .. upstairs features three large bedrooms, master has en suite bath and hall bath. .. on a larger lot with mature trees. .. many items were updated by previous owner in 2021.. .

26. 2021-07-07
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed
27. 2021-05-20
    status Pending
28. 2021-05-03
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $232 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 74.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$232
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$891
• − Management: −$891
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $4,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okmulgee
• NCES district ID: 4022800
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,078
• Composite: 3.66/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #264 of 270 in OK

Livability — Okmulgee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #17773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Okmulgee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 15,500

Population outlook (Okmulgee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,543 people
• By 2030: 36,528 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 34,430 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 32,498 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 28,814 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 25,193 · -32.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Native American 15% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okmulgee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.7) · D 27.7% · R 70.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+32.7 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.69%
• Current HPI: 257.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-67.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $99,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $119,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-22 Listed $129,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-06-04 Sold (MLS) $79,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-03-25 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $92,400 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $97,280 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-01-02 Listed $102,400 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-07-07 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-05-20 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-05-03 Listed $140,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $232 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.