320 Oak Tree Dr · Point Blank, TX 77364

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1996 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 160 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.4% in Point Blank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,477 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $443 of equity ($795 loan paydown + $-352 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.32%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,176
• Equity at exit: $31,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $39,434
• Equity at exit: $36,667

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $256	+0% $223	+5% $191	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $176	+0% $223	+5% $270	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $252	base $223	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-01-11
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2026-01-11
    historical
20. 2025-09-27
    listed $115,000 Active
21. 2025-09-27
    historical
22. 2025-06-28
    listed $119,000 Active
23. 2021-07-28
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2021-07-10
    status Pending
25. 2021-06-29
    status Option Pending
26. 2021-06-03
    price $69,900
27. 2021-04-29
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 153.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$203
• After-tax cash flow: $2,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Point Blank

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1477
• US rank: #25299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Blank, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-03 Price Changed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-29 Listed $75,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.