2884 Tick Ridge Rd · New Grand Chain, IL 62941

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 1.66 ac lot $73/sqft · 28% above area Est $125k · 28% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and move-in ready, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space on 1.66 peaceful acres. Nestled along a charming circle drive, the property features a private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining on the deck. Spacious bedrooms and inviting common spaces, help this home combine country living with modern convenience. Located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, you'll enjoy the best of quiet, rural living with easy access to outdoor recreation and riverfront views. It is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Riverfront views
• Circle drive

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• RIVERFRONT VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage (parking noted as 'Other')
• Utilities: Public water and septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; Total living area approximately 2200; Built in 1971
• Construction: Metal roof; Original construction (not new)
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot is approximately 1.66 acres; Lot features listed as 'Other'

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with laminate flooring and standard appliances (dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Main level bedrooms include a 14 x 11 and a 15 x 11 (both carpeted, egress windows); Lower level bedroom about 10 x 11 (carpeted); Basement bedroom about 10 x 12 (no egress window)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank in living room; Laminate in kitchen; Carpet in several bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator; One fireplace; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry area (approx. 4 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,317 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Century CUSD 100 (rural): math 6% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #836 of 919 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Century Jr/Sr High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #599 of 693 statewide, top 87%, 168 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $927 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Pulaski County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,834 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,071
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 27.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,270
• Equity at exit: $51,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $40,030
• Equity at exit: $65,323

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62941

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $159,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $159,900 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Spacious and move-in ready, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space on 1.66 peaceful acres. Nestled along a charming circle drive, the property features a private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining on the deck. Spacious bedrooms and inviting common spaces, help this home combine country living with modern convenience. Located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, you'll enjoy the best of quiet, rural living with easy access to outdoor recreation and riverfront views. It is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

17. 2026-05-05
    status Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Spacious and move-in ready, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space on 1.66 peaceful acres. Nestled along a charming circle drive, the property features a private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining on the deck. Spacious bedrooms and inviting common spaces, help this home combine country living with modern convenience. Located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, you'll enjoy the best of quiet, rural living with easy access to outdoor recreation and riverfront views. It is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

18. 2026-04-29
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Spacious and move-in ready, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space on 1.66 peaceful acres. Nestled along a charming circle drive, the property features a private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining on the deck. Spacious bedrooms and inviting common spaces, help this home combine country living with modern convenience. Located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, you'll enjoy the best of quiet, rural living with easy access to outdoor recreation and riverfront views. It is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $169,900 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Spacious and move-in ready, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space on 1.66 peaceful acres. Nestled along a charming circle drive, the property features a private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining on the deck. Spacious bedrooms and inviting common spaces, help this home combine country living with modern convenience. Located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, you'll enjoy the best of quiet, rural living with easy access to outdoor recreation and riverfront views. It is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior walls/paint. The kitchen and bathrooms are average, and the deck and fence show minor wear. The home is located on a peaceful 1.66-acre lot with a private backyard and a deck. The home is located just minutes from the scenic Grand Chain Lodge and Campground on the Ohio River, and is also located 10 minutes from Shawnee Community College.

Repairs flagged

• Minor deck — slight wear
• Minor fence — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale update kitchen backsplash — modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
deck · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
fence · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale update kitchen backsplash — modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Century CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1739630
• Math proficiency: 6% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,087
• Composite: 10.56/100
• National rank: #14662
• State rank: #836 of 919 in IL

Livability — New Grand Chain

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1317
• US rank: #25089

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 588

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,927 people
• By 2030: 4,542 · -7.8%
• By 2040: 3,752 · -23.8%
• By 2050: 3,081 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 1,982 · -59.8%
• By 2100: 1,365 · -72.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.2) · D 32.4% · R 66.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: 1.4pp · 2024: -34.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.2 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Current HPI: 84.1972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $159,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid