16 Hill St · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1940 4,356 sqft lot $239/sqft · 12% above area Est $241k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Village of Lake Luzerne home has been updated top to bottom and is ready for you!! New Carpet installed in all 3 bedrooms, LV flooring in the living areas, fresh paint, stainless appliances, first floor laundry room, deck, and a covered front porch to relax on!! Easy access to the Hudson river, Lake Luzerne and many other lakes in the area. Convenient to Lake George and Saratoga Springs. Fenced front and rear yards. 2 Car detached garage. Come take a look and make this your new home!! Open House scheduled for Sunday 3/29 from 12-2pm.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• New carpet
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• DECK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED FRONT AND REAR YARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $261,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.02%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,563
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: 12.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Traver St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+2%)	22mo	$179,900	$156	74
4 Mill St	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,170 (+4%)	2mo	$285,000	$244	69
11 Bay Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+2%)	22mo	$449,000	$389	64
94 Sagamore St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-7%)	3mo	$230,000	$219	50
11 Stewart Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+11%)	8mo	$273,200	$219	47
32 Davern Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-7%)	23mo	$300,000	$287	46
23 1st Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+9%)	16mo	$237,000	$192	43
42 Sylvan Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-11%)	24mo	$385,000	$385	36
958 E River Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+10%)	19mo	$125,000	$101	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $203,207
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $554,184
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,909/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,035	-5% $959	+0% $883	+5% $806	+10% $730
Rent	-10% $617	-5% $750	+0% $883	+5% $1,015	+10% $1,148
Rate	-1.0pp $1,019	-0.5pp $951	base $883	+0.5pp $813	+1.0pp $742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   This Village of Lake Luzerne home has been updated top to bottom and is ready for you!! New Carpet installed in all 3 bedrooms, LV flooring in the living areas, fresh paint, stainless appliances, first floor laundry room, deck, and a covered front porch to relax on!! Easy access to the Hudson river, Lake Luzerne and many other lakes in the area. Convenient to Lake George and Saratoga Springs. Fenced front and rear yards. 2 Car detached garage. Come take a look and make this your new home!! Open House scheduled for Sunday 3/29 from 12-2pm.

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $269,900 Active 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   This Village of Lake Luzerne home has been updated top to bottom and is ready for you!! New Carpet installed in all 3 bedrooms, LV flooring in the living areas, fresh paint, stainless appliances, first floor laundry room, deck, and a covered front porch to relax on!! Easy access to the Hudson river, Lake Luzerne and many other lakes in the area. Convenient to Lake George and Saratoga Springs. Fenced front and rear yards. 2 Car detached garage. Come take a look and make this your new home!! Open House scheduled for Sunday 3/29 from 12-2pm.

3. 2023-03-07
   soldstatus $240,000
4. 2023-03-01
   soldstatus $240,000 Closed 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently renovated in 2020, three bedroom home in the heart of Lake Luzerne town with access to the Hudson River, local lakes, Saratoga Race Track and all that the Adirondacks have to offer. Entertaining deck, detached two car garage and first floor laundry are just a few of the features this home has to offer.

5. 2023-02-14
   status Pending 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently renovated in 2020, three bedroom home in the heart of Lake Luzerne town with access to the Hudson River, local lakes, Saratoga Race Track and all that the Adirondacks have to offer. Entertaining deck, detached two car garage and first floor laundry are just a few of the features this home has to offer.

6. 2022-12-27
   historical Contingent 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently renovated in 2020, three bedroom home in the heart of Lake Luzerne town with access to the Hudson River, local lakes, Saratoga Race Track and all that the Adirondacks have to offer. Entertaining deck, detached two car garage and first floor laundry are just a few of the features this home has to offer.

7. 2022-11-30
   listed $240,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently renovated in 2020, three bedroom home in the heart of Lake Luzerne town with access to the Hudson River, local lakes, Saratoga Race Track and all that the Adirondacks have to offer. Entertaining deck, detached two car garage and first floor laundry are just a few of the features this home has to offer.

8. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed (Final Sale)
9. 2020-09-21
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
10. 2020-09-14
    listed $144,900 New
11. 2020-02-13
    soldstatus $14,500 Closed (Final Sale)
12. 2020-01-19
    status Pend (Under Cntr)
13. 2020-01-09
    price $19,900
14. 2019-12-13
    listed $39,900 New
15. 2009-11-23
    soldstatus $80,000
16. 2009-11-16
    soldstatus $80,000
17. 2009-11-16
    soldstatus $80,000
18. 2009-06-23
    listed $89,900
19. 2009-06-23
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$826/yr (+$69/mo · 28.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,909
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,224
• − Management: −$3,224
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $6,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $9,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Luzerne, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $269,900 Global MLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Global MLS
• 2023-02-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-12-27 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $240,000 Global MLS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Global MLS
• 2020-09-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2020-09-14 Listed $144,900 Global MLS
• 2020-02-13 Sold (MLS) $14,500 Global MLS
• 2020-01-19 Pending — Global MLS
• 2020-01-09 Price Changed $19,900 Global MLS
• 2019-12-13 Listed $39,900 Global MLS
• 2009-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-16 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Global MLS
• 2009-11-16 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Global MLS
• 2009-06-23 Listed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2009-06-23 Listed $89,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,909 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.