311 Mascot · Houston, TX 77029

$279,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this 4 bedroom oasis that is currently under construction. Embrace the potential of this upcoming masterpiece, where every detail is thoughtfully planned out. Experience the excitement of watching your dream home come to life right before your eyes. With each room carefully designed to maximize comfort and style, this property is a perfect canvas waiting for your personal touch. Don't miss out on the opportunity to own a piece of future luxury in the making.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $279,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,350.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,901/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 457% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $190,103 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Gans St Unit A	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,589 (-6%)	3mo	$215,000	$135	72
414 Clinton Park St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (-6%)	8mo	$155,000	$98	64
320 Delaware St	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,540 (-9%)	1mo	$165,000	$107	62
326 Gans St Unit A	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,505 (-11%)	7mo	$225,000	$150	60
326 Gans St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,505 (-11%)	10mo	$225,000	$150	58
328 Gans St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-14%)	4mo	$275,000	$189	56
320 Clearwater St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-8%)	8mo	$240,000	$155	42
416 Calloway St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,584 (-6%)	5mo	$199,900	$126	42
274 Owens St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,469 (-13%)	8mo	$110,000	$75	40
318 Clearwater St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-8%)	12mo	$225,000	$145	39
1307 Bank Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,435 (-15%)	11mo	$250,000	$174	31
431 Cartersville St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-14%)	11mo	$269,900	$186	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $122,149
• Equity at exit: $228,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $372,238
• Equity at exit: $492,203

Cash invested: $70,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,800/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $217,315

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,338
• Closing costs: $7,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Massachusetts St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	13d	1	0.10mi
220 Armstrong St Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	44d	1	0.24mi
423 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,515	$1.39	2d	1	0.33mi
205 Bolden St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	44d	1	0.39mi
253 N Carolina St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,600	$1.03	8d	1	0.52mi
2216 3rd St Galena Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	44d	1	0.58mi
9821 Turnbow St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,720	$1.51	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   listed $279,900 Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-06-27
   listed $279,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,192
• − Property taxes: −$3,800
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$7,370
• Taxable loss: −$7,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $279,900 HARMLS