3648 Bella Sera Ln · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$347,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · Land · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home ready March 2026! lot backs up to wooded preserve. This open floorplan creates a unified living space with a large great room that overlooks the kitchen, dining area and lanai. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet & shower Lakes at Bella Lago Signature Series offers new single-family homes in Green Cove Springs, FL with various open-concept floorplans. Homeowners will enjoy world-class amenities including a pool, clubhouse, playground and large community lake. Located in Clay County, this community is just minutes from the new First Coast Expressway, providing easy access

Key facts

• Wooded preserve
• Community lake
• Open floorplan

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• WOODED PRESERVE
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET
• COMMUNITY LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $244,121 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-83,973
• Equity at exit: $51,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-124,672
• Equity at exit: $30,088

Cash invested: $97,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,486/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $288,494

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-238	+0% $-337	+5% $-435	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-433	+0% $-337	+5% $-240	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-248	base $-337	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,998
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3549 Bella Sera Ln Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,150	$1.47	25d	1	0.24mi
2506 Creekfront Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,554	$1.56	25d	1	1.28mi
2653 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1638	$2,005	$1.22	9d	1	1.35mi
2858 Buck Creek Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,829	$1.11	18d	1	1.38mi
2555 Bear Creek Way Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,835	$1.11	25d	1	1.39mi
2935 Darlington Oak Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	2096	$2,350	$1.12	9d	1	1.39mi
2621 Fernleaf Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,100	$1.12	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   listed $347,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,486 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,486 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$3,486
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$10,123
• Taxable loss: −$10,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $347,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+56.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,486 · +56.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.