128 Evelyn St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$119,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1925 3,210 sqft lot Est $169k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWN FOR LESS THAN YOU CAN RENT! Perfect opportunity to take that leap into homeownership. Spacious open concept. First floor with original hardwoods & molding awaits your designer touch. Two first floor bedrooms & 2 second floor bedrooms means plenty of additional space! Plus, check out all the updates already done for you: Tear off roof (2007), new porch (2007), new 100 amp electrical panel(2009), hwt (2014), house painted (2014) & glass block windows (2015). Check out your new house today!

Key facts

• 3,210 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $119k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.96%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Newfield St	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,198 (+1%)	2mo	$167,000	$139	82
38 Wyandotte Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,200 (+1%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	81
82 Beatrice Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,166 (-2%)	2mo	$165,000	$142	78
50 Philadelphia St	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,276 (+7%)	1mo	$155,000	$121	71
62 Chadduck Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+4%)	2mo	$155,000	$125	71
280 Esser Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,283 (+8%)	3mo	$175,000	$136	64
446 Victoria Blvd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-4%)	2mo	$265,000	$232	61
145 Hoover Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,143 (-4%)	2mo	$155,000	$136	55
36 Layer Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	0mo	$185,000	$178	55
186 Crowley Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,333 (+12%)	2mo	$215,000	$161	53
430 Washington Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,233 (+4%)	2mo	$217,000	$176	50
56 Gallatin Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,052 (-11%)	2mo	$178,000	$169	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $18,449
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $89,926
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $243/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $505	+0% $471	+5% $301	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $354	-5% $413	+0% $471	+5% $529	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $501	base $471	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Philadelphia St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	871	$1,100	$1.26	3d	1	0.08mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	24d	1	0.38mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	0.42mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.47mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	22d	1	0.68mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	1.02mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	1.17mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	1.21mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	1.34mi
2522 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,625	$1.41	2d	1	1.35mi
244 Hartwell Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $119,000 Active
3. 2016-08-10
   soldstatus $34,500 Closed Sale or Rented 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   OWN FOR LESS THAN YOU CAN RENT! Perfect opportunity to take that leap into homeownership. Spacious open concept. First floor with original hardwoods & molding awaits your designer touch. Two first floor bedrooms & 2 second floor bedrooms means plenty of additional space! Plus, check out all the updates already done for you: Tear off roof (2007), new porch (2007), new 100 amp electrical panel(2009), hwt (2014), house painted (2014) & glass block windows (2015). Check out your new house today!

4. 2016-06-23
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   OWN FOR LESS THAN YOU CAN RENT! Perfect opportunity to take that leap into homeownership. Spacious open concept. First floor with original hardwoods & molding awaits your designer touch. Two first floor bedrooms & 2 second floor bedrooms means plenty of additional space! Plus, check out all the updates already done for you: Tear off roof (2007), new porch (2007), new 100 amp electrical panel(2009), hwt (2014), house painted (2014) & glass block windows (2015). Check out your new house today!

5. 2016-05-28
   price $39,900 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   OWN FOR LESS THAN YOU CAN RENT! Perfect opportunity to take that leap into homeownership. Spacious open concept. First floor with original hardwoods & molding awaits your designer touch. Two first floor bedrooms & 2 second floor bedrooms means plenty of additional space! Plus, check out all the updates already done for you: Tear off roof (2007), new porch (2007), new 100 amp electrical panel(2009), hwt (2014), house painted (2014) & glass block windows (2015). Check out your new house today!

6. 2016-04-08
   listed $45,000 Active 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   OWN FOR LESS THAN YOU CAN RENT! Perfect opportunity to take that leap into homeownership. Spacious open concept. First floor with original hardwoods & molding awaits your designer touch. Two first floor bedrooms & 2 second floor bedrooms means plenty of additional space! Plus, check out all the updates already done for you: Tear off roof (2007), new porch (2007), new 100 amp electrical panel(2009), hwt (2014), house painted (2014) & glass block windows (2015). Check out your new house today!

7. 2016-01-30
   historical
8. 2015-08-18
   price $49,900
9. 2015-07-29
   listed $59,900 Active
10. 1994-04-28
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $243 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$884/yr (+$74/mo · 363.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$243
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $4,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $119,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-10 Sold (MLS) $34,500 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-23 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-05-28 Price Changed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-01-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-08-18 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-29 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 1994-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $243 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.