3955 Coffee #53 · Modesto, CA 95355

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1972 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $59/sqft · 27% below area Est $116k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.4

Listing remarks

Affordable Homeownership! Large and attractive corner lot. Located in the highly desired Gated 55 and over Silverwood Mobil Home Park. Lovely grounds with pool and clubhouse. MUST SEE!! Lots of community activities to join! Light and bright 2/2 Fleetwood Mobil home 1972 ready to be loved, covered porch, newer water heater, dual pane windows and updated electrical. Convenient shed to start on your projects. Appliances stay, RV and BOAT storage available. Call for your private showing of home park and grounds!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.3% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.52%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,076
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -26.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3955 Coffee #53	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$81,900	$57	95
3955 Coffee Rd #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	4mo	$105,000	$69	88
3955 Coffee Rd #71	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	16mo	$95,000	$73	70
43 Clipper Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$25,000	$17	66
3 Schooner Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$118,840	$83	64
145 Dory Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$139,000	$103	63
19 Schooner Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$114,500	$85	61
195 Schooner Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,322 (-8%)	9mo	$132,000	$100	54
132 Sloop	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$138,000	$103	51
67 Clipper	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$125,000	$93	48
30 Schooner #30	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	16mo	$117,500	$94	46
93 Schooner Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	7mo	$150,000	$116	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $27,080
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $68,910
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $121,000 ($90/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $713	+0% $684	+5% $654	+10% $625
Rent	-10% $557	-5% $620	+0% $684	+5% $747	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $705	base $684	+0.5pp $662	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	162d	1	0.21mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	154d	1	0.35mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Apt D Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,250	$2.17	0d	1	0.36mi
941 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,799	$1.79	49d	1	0.36mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	154d	1	0.37mi
3532 Claremont Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	3.0	1793	$2,400	$1.34	0d	1	0.39mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	164d	1	0.54mi
3400 Kingswood Dr Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,095	$2.28	0d	1	0.61mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	162d	1	0.63mi
1700 Briarwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,800	$1.71	0d	1	0.80mi
3006 Delta Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	28d	1	0.99mi
3000 Bay Ln Unit 3002 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	0d	1	1.01mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	154d	1	1.02mi
3000 Jade Way Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	0d	1	1.07mi
1708 Castilla Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,199	$1.40	0d	1	1.08mi
1708 Castilla Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,199	$1.40	38d	1	1.08mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	154d	1	1.08mi
1616 Marston Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	0d	1	1.22mi
1616 Marston Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,095	$1.92	5d	1	1.22mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	154d	2	1.25mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	164d	1	1.29mi
1917 Pars Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,195	$1.60	1d	1	1.30mi
2501 Bahia Way Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,050	$2.03	0d	1	1.33mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$1,893	$2.31	0d	11	1.34mi
701 Standiford Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	0d	1	1.34mi
2405 Vera Cruz Dr Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,675	$1.82	154d	1	1.37mi
1720 Floyd Ave Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	0d	1	1.39mi
813 Grapeleaf Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,550	$1.81	1d	1	1.40mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	154d	1	1.44mi
3401 Fremont St Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,250	$1.52	9d	1	1.45mi
825 Muscat Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,395	$1.98	51d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but lease not indicated)
• HOA & community: No associationSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Individual electric meterIndividual gas meter220 volts in kitchen220 volts in laundryPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in parkDouble wideBuilt in 1972
• Construction: Metal skirtingFleetwood manufacturer
• Exterior features: Corner lotShed(s)Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast areaBreakfast nook and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral coolingCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Carpeted porch steps with railingCovered patioPets allowedLiving room with unspecified additional features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $84,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $84,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $84,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $84,900 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $7,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $6,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and lush landscaping. Minor updates to landscaping, painting, and lighting can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stockard Coffee Elementary Middle Elizabeth Ustach Middle F CA #277/498 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Fred C. Beyer High F CA #669/1,170 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but lease not indicated)
• HOA & community: No associationSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Individual electric meterIndividual gas meter220 volts in kitchen220 volts in laundryPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in parkDouble wideBuilt in 1972
• Construction: Metal skirtingFleetwood manufacturer
• Exterior features: Corner lotShed(s)Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast areaBreakfast nook and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral coolingCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Carpeted porch steps with railingCovered patioPets allowedLiving room with unspecified additional features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room