126 Jack Rival Way · Dungannon, VA 24245

$73,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 432 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot $101/sqft · 17% below area Est $88k · 17% under $100/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention first time home buyers! Where can you find a like new 2 br 1 ba home with new appliances, a spacious eat in kitchen, metal roof and even your own covered front porch for such an affordable price. Move in condition!!!! Central heat and air. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Laminate flooring
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($822 rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#450 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Scott County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #33 of 131 in VA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort Blackmore Primary (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 89 students, 94% FRL); Dungannon Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #295 of 342 statewide, top 87%, 84 students, 75% FRL); Twin Springs High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 242 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $64,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,000
• List price: $73,000
• Delta: -17.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Kitty Cole Ln	0.02mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	6mo	$75,000	$104	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-5,386
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,716
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24245

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $121	+0% $101	+5% $80	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $68	+0% $101	+5% $133	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $119	base $101	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 431 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 429 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 428 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 426 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 425 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 424 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $73,000 Active 423 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $73,000 Active 420 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $73,000 Active 419 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $73,000 Active 418 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 417 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 414 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 413 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 412 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 411 DOM
18. 2025-11-06
    price $73,000 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Attention first time home buyers! Where can you find a like new 2 br 1 ba home with new appliances, a spacious eat in kitchen, metal roof and even your own covered front porch for such an affordable price. Move in condition!!!! Central heat and air. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

19. 2025-10-08
    status Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Attention first time home buyers! Where can you find a like new 2 br 1 ba home with new appliances, a spacious eat in kitchen, metal roof and even your own covered front porch for such an affordable price. Move in condition!!!! Central heat and air. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

20. 2025-10-03
    historical 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Attention first time home buyers! Where can you find a like new 2 br 1 ba home with new appliances, a spacious eat in kitchen, metal roof and even your own covered front porch for such an affordable price. Move in condition!!!! Central heat and air. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

21. 2025-04-10
    listed $75,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Attention first time home buyers! Where can you find a like new 2 br 1 ba home with new appliances, a spacious eat in kitchen, metal roof and even your own covered front porch for such an affordable price. Move in condition!!!! Central heat and air. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$171/yr (+$14/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$789
• − Management: −$789
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $81
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $1,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in condition home offers a good balance of updates and maintenance needs, with a good foundation and solid structure. The new appliances and metal roof add value, while the exterior paint and landscaping can be refreshed to boost curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental install new blinds — improves privacy
• Both replace ceiling fans — modernizes and improves airflow

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental install new blinds — improves privacy ↑
• Both replace ceiling fans — modernizes and improves airflow ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scott County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103480
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,567
• Composite: 57.65/100
• National rank: #1061
• State rank: #33 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dungannon

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #19260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dungannon, VA
• Population (ZIP): 873

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,405 people
• By 2030: 19,379 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 17,325 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 15,464 · -24.2%
• By 2075: 11,845 · -42.0%
• By 2100: 8,516 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+67.8 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+50.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.01%
• Current HPI: 175.337
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $73,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $75,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.