1023 Liberty Avenue Ave · Livingston, TX 77351

$150,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2023 1.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 25% below area Est $260k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of Lake Livingston in Polk County, Texas, the 77351 zip code offers an enticing blend of rural charm and modern conveniences. This scenic locale is known for its tranquil lifestyle and wealth of recreational opportunities. Its close proximity to one of the largest lakes in Texas, Lake Livingston, provides residents with a plethora of outdoor activities such as boating, fishing, and swimming. Additionally, the locale is surrounded by beautiful parks and nature trails, perfect for hiking and biking, ensuring that nature lovers and health enthusiasts have plenty of opportunities to explore and stay active.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,255
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -42.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Post Oak St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+9%)	9mo	$249,999	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,025
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,794
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $126	+0% $83	+5% $41	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $30	+0% $83	+5% $137	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $121	base $83	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2778 FM 3277 Unit 3277 Livingston, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,495	$1.00	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Lake Livingston in Polk County, Texas, the 77351 zip code offers an enticing blend of rural charm and modern conveniences. This scenic locale is known for its tranquil lifestyle and wealth of recreational opportunities. Its close proximity to one of the largest lakes in Texas, Lake Livingston, provides residents with a plethora of outdoor activities such as boating, fishing, and swimming. Additionally, the locale is surrounded by beautiful parks and nature trails, perfect for hiking and biking, ensuring that nature lovers and health enthusiasts have plenty of opportunities to explore and stay active.

15. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus
16. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus
17. 2024-11-16
    status Pending
18. 2024-11-16
    historical
19. 2024-07-17
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2024-07-16
    historical
21. 2024-04-25
    listed $130,000 Active
22. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus
23. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus
24. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus
25. 2017-05-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,098/yr (+$91/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$364
• After-tax cash flow: $1,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.