4306 Groton Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1955 6,708 sqft lot $108/sqft · 19% below area Est $172k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, single-story home! Featuring an open floor plan, this home offers a spacious living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is a chef's dream with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. The primary bathroom boasts a double vanity, adding convenience and elegance. Enjoy outdoor living in the wood-fenced backyard, complete with a shed for extra storage. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Open floor plan
• Spacious living area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,953
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4418 Groton Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	1mo	$200,000	$149	83
10807 Segrest Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,313 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$168	78
11018 Long Gate	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-4%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	70
4235 Dacca Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-14%)	4mo	$177,000	$159	67
4419 Botany Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-9%)	3mo	$190,000	$162	66
10818 Carlton Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-4%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	66
5023 Denoron Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+7%)	4mo	$189,999	$138	58
10611 Leitrim Way	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-14%)	0mo	$159,900	$145	53
12002 Comfort Glen Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	3mo	$189,900	$136	52
11416 Lucky Falls Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+9%)	2mo	$291,388	$208	51
11418 Lucky Falls Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,422 (+10%)	3mo	$294,262	$207	49
11424 Galway Grove Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+9%)	5mo	$299,202	$213	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,708
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-477
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,407/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	0.59mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	18d	1	0.62mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,691	$1.09	7d	1	0.81mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.95mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	13d	1	1.05mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	1.06mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	43d	1	1.07mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	1.09mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	1.13mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	1.14mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.16mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	1.17mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.21mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	1.31mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	4d	1	1.40mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	21d	1	1.40mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.40mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	1.40mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	10d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	2d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	10d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	5d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	10d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,081	$1.02	2d	1	1.41mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,281	$1.10	2d	1	1.41mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.41mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-03-13
    listed $149,900 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, single-story home! Featuring an open floor plan, this home offers a spacious living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is a chef's dream with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. The primary bathroom boasts a double vanity, adding convenience and elegance. Enjoy outdoor living in the wood-fenced backyard, complete with a shed for extra storage. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2026-03-10
    historical
14. 2025-06-26
    price $165,000
15. 2025-05-13
    price $175,000
16. 2025-04-01
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2019-10-22
    soldstatus
18. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2019-10-11
    status Pending
20. 2019-09-30
    status Option Pending
21. 2019-09-23
    price $129,500
22. 2019-08-16
    price $134,900
23. 2019-08-12
    price $137,000
24. 2019-07-26
    listed $142,500 Active
25. 2019-06-13
    soldstatus
26. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,407 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,407 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,407
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$414
• After-tax cash flow: $3,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $129,500 HARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Price Changed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2019-08-12 Price Changed $137,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-26 Listed $142,500 HARMLS
• 2019-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,407 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.