39248 9th Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1977 6,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SUNSET ESTATES! Look no further, This 2 bedroom 1.5 bath beautiful home has everything you need and more! Whether you are looking for your first home or your retirement home this one checks all the boxes. As you walk in to this fully furnished block home you will absolutely fall in love with what the owners have done, Many upgrades including updated paint interior and exterior, updated flooring, furniture is barely used and much much more. This home is located in the heart of Zephyrhills and is just minutes from down town. Also easy access to Orlando, Tampa, theme parks and beaches. Come and check out the up and coming City of Zephyrhills you do not want to miss the opportunity to be a part of the growing community. Call today before this beauty is gone!

Key facts

• 6,800 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39423 9th Ave	0.16mi	2/1.5	858 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$262	84
5410 Satsuma Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	910 (+9%)	2mo	$215,000	$236	66
5612 18th St	0.40mi	2/1.0	825 (-1%)	17mo	$215,000	$261	62
39523 8th Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	786 (-6%)	18mo	$256,000	$326	60
5640 17th St	0.46mi	2/2.0	936 (+12%)	3mo	$116,000	$124	55
5713 13th St	0.63mi	2/1.0	816 (-2%)	12mo	$240,000	$294	53
39047 Heath Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0	912 (+10%)	2mo	$50,000	$55	50
38832 Henry Dr	0.68mi	2/1.5	884 (+6%)	8mo	$230,000	$260	49
5150 18th St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	873 (+5%)	7mo	$299,800	$343	47
6126 16th St	0.67mi	2/1.5	884 (+6%)	14mo	$225,000	$255	45
5610 12th St	0.64mi	2/1.0	896 (+8%)	15mo	$210,000	$234	41
38706 8th Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	20mo	$110,000	$153	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-9,324
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-8,849
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,530/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	0.12mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.14mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	12d	1	0.17mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	24d	1	0.19mi
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	12d	1	0.20mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	1d	1	0.30mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.30mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	2d	1	0.30mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.31mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.39mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	17d	1	0.47mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	0.66mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.71mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	4d	1	0.75mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.77mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.78mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	0.82mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	0.84mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	0.85mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	0.91mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	0.91mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.93mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.93mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	16d	1	0.93mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.94mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	24d	1	0.95mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.99mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	1.05mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.12mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.13mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.18mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.20mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	1.26mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.32mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.34mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	16d	1	1.35mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.37mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.48mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-09-17
   historical
2. 2025-09-15
   listed $99,000
3. 2022-12-22
   soldstatus $254,000
4. 2022-12-16
   soldstatus $254,000 Closed 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   SUNSET ESTATES! Look no further, This 2 bedroom 1.5 bath beautiful home has everything you need and more! Whether you are looking for your first home or your retirement home this one checks all the boxes. As you walk in to this fully furnished block home you will absolutely fall in love with what the owners have done, Many upgrades including updated paint interior and exterior, updated flooring, furniture is barely used and much much more. This home is located in the heart of Zephyrhills and is just minutes from down town. Also easy access to Orlando, Tampa, theme parks and beaches. Come and check out the up and coming City of Zephyrhills you do not want to miss the opportunity to be a part of the growing community. Call today before this beauty is gone!

5. 2022-11-08
   status Pending 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   SUNSET ESTATES! Look no further, This 2 bedroom 1.5 bath beautiful home has everything you need and more! Whether you are looking for your first home or your retirement home this one checks all the boxes. As you walk in to this fully furnished block home you will absolutely fall in love with what the owners have done, Many upgrades including updated paint interior and exterior, updated flooring, furniture is barely used and much much more. This home is located in the heart of Zephyrhills and is just minutes from down town. Also easy access to Orlando, Tampa, theme parks and beaches. Come and check out the up and coming City of Zephyrhills you do not want to miss the opportunity to be a part of the growing community. Call today before this beauty is gone!

6. 2022-10-20
   listed $269,900 Active 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   SUNSET ESTATES! Look no further, This 2 bedroom 1.5 bath beautiful home has everything you need and more! Whether you are looking for your first home or your retirement home this one checks all the boxes. As you walk in to this fully furnished block home you will absolutely fall in love with what the owners have done, Many upgrades including updated paint interior and exterior, updated flooring, furniture is barely used and much much more. This home is located in the heart of Zephyrhills and is just minutes from down town. Also easy access to Orlando, Tampa, theme parks and beaches. Come and check out the up and coming City of Zephyrhills you do not want to miss the opportunity to be a part of the growing community. Call today before this beauty is gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,530 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,530 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,530
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $1,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-63.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $254,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) $254,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-20 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,530 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.