7526 Jerez Ct #4 · Carlsbad, CA 92009

$775,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Condo public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1975 $552/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to coastal living at its finest in the highly sought-after La Costa golf course community of Carlsbad. This rare end-unit, three-level condo offers one of the largest and most desirable floorplans in the neighborhood, with 1,867 square feet of open, light-filled living space designed for both comfort and style. Step inside from the main-level two-car garage—complete with in-unit laundry—and head upstairs to a bright and airy living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious second floor features a custom wet bar, a private balcony to catch the ocean breeze, a designated dining space, and a well-appointed kitchen with stone countertops and seamless flow. A be

Key facts

• End-unit
• Custom wet bar
• Private balcony

Tags

• LA COSTA GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• END-UNIT
• THREE-LEVEL CONDO
• CUSTOM WET BAR
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size sourced from assessor/public records; Lot size source: Assessor's Data; Year built source: Public Records
• HOA & community: Part of an association (Jerez Ct Condos); Monthly association fee; Association provides insurance, pest control, and grounds maintenance; Association rules (call for rules); Community of 24 units; Community features: curbs, golf course access, hiking, street lighting, storm drains, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with rear entry; Direct garage access; Two garage spaces; Two total parking spaces; Two-door garage
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House structure (attached property / condominium); End unit with one common wall; No one above or below; Three or more levels; Entry at level 1 (front door or garage)
• Construction: No fencing; Property identified as Condominium; No ADU
• Exterior features: Concrete patio; Has patio; No pool; Corner lot; Landscaped; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Formal, separate dining area; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Walk-in shower; Shower; Stone counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace; Fireplace heating
• Interior features: Sliding glass doors; Mirrored closet doors; Tile counters; Two staircases; Blinds; Window screens; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $775k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $515k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $476k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $476k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Dieguito Union High (urban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #56 of 1,400 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: La Costa Heights Elementary (634 students, 14% FRL); Oak Crest Middle (802 students, 24% FRL); Canyon Crest Academy (2,336 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($164k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $775k implies a 384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $475,707 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.97% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-71,163
• Equity at exit: $263,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $925
• Equity at exit: $348,759

Cash invested: $217,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92009

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,472/yr
• Insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$552
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$999
• Net cashflow: $-1,470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,618

Max offer price $515,257

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,032	-5% $-1,251	+0% $-1,470	+5% $-1,690	+10% $-1,909
Rent	-10% $-1,846	-5% $-1,658	+0% $-1,470	+5% $-1,282	+10% $-1,095
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,080	-0.5pp $-1,273	base $-1,470	+0.5pp $-1,671	+1.0pp $-1,875

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,750
• Closing costs: $23,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7517 Jerez Ct Unit B Carlsbad, CA	3.0	3.5	1827	$6,500	$3.56	25d	1	0.06mi
2607 Pirineos Way #111 Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,550	$2.54	0d	1	0.17mi
2564 Navarra Dr #206 Carlsbad, CA	1.0	1.5	1427	$3,500	$2.45	0d	1	0.18mi
7563 Agua Dulce Ct Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1291	$3,400	$2.63	0d	1	0.76mi
2319 Caringa Way #56 Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1536	$3,500	$2.28	45d	1	0.86mi
7727 Caminito Monarca #108 Carlsbad, CA	2.0	3.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	4d	1	1.08mi
2657 Cazadero Dr #59 Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2295	$5,299	$2.31	45d	1	1.17mi
7264 Estrella de Mar Rd Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2304	$6,300	$2.73	0d	1	1.19mi
6801 El Fuerte St Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$5,495	$3.81	26d	1	1.40mi
2833 Luciernaga St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	3.0	1856	$5,500	$2.96	4d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $552 · $6,624/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $775,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $775,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $775,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $775,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $775,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $775,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $775,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $775,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $795,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $795,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $795,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $795,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $795,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $795,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $795,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $795,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $835,000 Active
18. 2026-04-14
    historical $835,000
19. 1994-04-22
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 1980-04-09
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,472 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,890 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,418/yr (+$202/mo · 69.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,412
• − Property taxes: −$3,472
• − Insurance: −$3,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,567
• − Management: −$4,567
• − HOA: −$6,624
• − Depreciation: −$22,545
• Taxable loss: −$31,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Dieguito Union High
• NCES district ID: 0634380
• Math proficiency: 72% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,199
• Composite: 70.63/100
• National rank: #519
• State rank: #56 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,739
• Household income: $164,182
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Current HPI: 448.8771
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1127.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $835,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $835,000 CRMLS
• 1994-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1980-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,472 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.