21 Sunset Ave · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1993 0.90 ac lot Est $1765k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

Key facts

• Private tennis court
• 0.9 acre lot
• 550 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE TENNIS COURT
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO BEACHES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Has garage
• Utilities: Cesspool
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Non-waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.50M).
• Recommended offer: $1.48M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $760k; list at $1.50M implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,476,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,764,580
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Argyle Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-10%)	6mo	$1,085,000	$723	70
15 Bayside Ave	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-4%)	10mo	$1,749,000	$1,093	63
37 Sunset Ave	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,900 (+14%)	8mo	$2,020,000	$1,063	52
1 Friese Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,543 (-7%)	17mo	$1,199,000	$777	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-12,370
• Equity at exit: $223,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $284,988
• Equity at exit: $129,606

Cash invested: $419,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax from tax record: −$833 /mo · $9,992/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,441
• Net cashflow: $3,626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,795

Max offer price $1,499,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $374,750
• Closing costs: $44,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	5d	1	0.14mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	43d	1	0.65mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	24d	1	0.77mi
24 Quogue Riverhead Rd Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	2054	$15,000	$7.30	24d	1	1.00mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	43d	1	1.05mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	19d	1	1.19mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	24d	1	1.32mi
2941 Quogue Riverhead Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2044	$80,000	$39.14	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $1,499,000 Active
16. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus $760,000
17. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $760,000 Closed 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

18. 2018-04-13
    status Under Contract 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

19. 2018-02-26
    price $800,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

20. 2017-12-13
    price $830,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

21. 2017-07-17
    listed $850,000 New 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Located On Desirable Street In East Quogue Is This Three Bedroom, Three Full Bath Contemporary. The Home Resides On .90 Of An Acre With An Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Area, Living Room With Fireplace, Den And Florida Room. The Grounds Has A Pool Surround By A Large Deck And An All Weather Tennis Court. Located South Of The Highway With Bay At End Of Street., Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

22. 2015-04-18
    historical
23. 2014-06-03
    listed $940,000
24. 2007-06-12
    soldstatus $955,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,992 · $833/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,663 · $1,472/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,670/yr (+$639/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,967
• − Property taxes: −$9,992
• − Insurance: −$7,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,729
• − Management: −$15,729
• − Depreciation: −$43,607
• Taxable income: $20,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,823
• After-tax cash flow: $38,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+57.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $760,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $760,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Price Changed $800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-13 Price Changed $830,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-17 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Listed $940,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $955,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $9,992 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.