3018 Viceroy Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$281,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Land · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 4,600 sqft lot $110/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to Lake Deer Estates, located in the city of Poinciana. This location is conveniently located near world class attractions. Lake Deer Estates is the perfect community to call home with its beautiful Florida lifestyle and resort amenities that include a community pool, tot lot, and dog park. Let me introduce you to the 1-story Harper floor plan that is a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with 1,665 sq ft that features block to block construction. This plan has 18x18 ceramic tile and granite countertops in all the wet areas. Whirlpool stainless steel appliances add to the feel of the home. The open floor plan seamless connects the rooms and make this home perfect for en

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open floor plan
• Tot lot

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• TOT LOT
• DOG PARK
• CERAMIC TILE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,665 (builder source)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $2,482; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $110 (required); Community has street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Fiber optics available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (under construction); One level; West-facing entry level
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Harper model); New construction permit BR-2026-697; Builder license CBC1265174; Projected completion March 19, 2026
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access; 0.11 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $218,796 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,847
• Equity at exit: $61,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,588
• Equity at exit: $59,394

Cash invested: $78,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,025/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,478

Max offer price $241,385

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-150	+0% $-229	+5% $-309	+10% $-389
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-316	+0% $-229	+5% $-143	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-158	base $-229	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,475
• Closing costs: $8,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	3d	10	0.20mi
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	24d	1	0.24mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	24d	1	0.27mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	24d	1	0.28mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	20d	1	0.32mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	4d	1	0.34mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.34mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	12d	1	0.43mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	24d	1	0.49mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	15d	1	0.61mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	24d	1	0.63mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	4d	1	0.66mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	0.70mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	24d	1	0.80mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	15d	1	0.85mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.89mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	24d	1	0.93mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	24d	1	0.93mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	24d	1	0.94mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	1.01mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	4d	1	1.01mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	24d	1	1.10mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	4d	1	1.16mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	11d	1	1.18mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	24d	1	1.22mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	4d	1	1.22mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	15d	1	1.26mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	15d	1	1.26mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	1.27mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	24d	1	1.28mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	4d	1	1.29mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	4d	1	1.29mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	4d	1	1.35mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	24d	1	1.37mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	24d	1	1.40mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	24d	1	1.41mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	4d	1	1.46mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	4d	1	1.46mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	1.46mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $281,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $285,990 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,990 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   status $283,990 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-04-20
   price $282,990
10. 2026-04-09
    status Active
11. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
12. 2026-03-09
    listed $280,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,791
• − Property taxes: −$3,025
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$8,201
• Taxable loss: −$7,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $-906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $282,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $280,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,025 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.