20115 N Sojourner Dr · Surprise, AZ 85387

$450,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2005 8,204 sqft lot $191/sqft · 34% below area Est $680k · 34% under $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded Mission with NEW ROOF, HVAC, fresh exterior paint, and meticulous care throughout. Desirable open floor plan offers a welcoming courtyard entry and an open layout that connects the living, dining, and kitchen spaces for easy everyday living and entertaining. Major updates include a NEW ROOF (2026), exterior paint (2024), HVAC (2020), and water heater, giving buyers peace of mind. The spacious kitchen features Corian countertops, cherry cabinets, and a sunny 4-ft bay window extension ideal for casual dining. The primary suite includes dual sinks and direct patio access, while the den with Murphy bed functions perfectly as a guest room. Outside, the expanded cool-decked patio provides a comfortable setting for relaxing or hosting after enjoying Grand's golf, fitness and social.. activies. Thoughtful touches like plantation shutters, skylights, security doors, and inside laundry enhance the home's comfort. Located near the Cimarron Recreation Center, you're close to the amenities that define the Grand lifestyle. Furniture available outside of escrow.

Key facts

• 8,204 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $304k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,420 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $679,625
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -33.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20332 N Croft Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,334 (-1%)	1mo	$595,000	$255	72
19722 N Regents Park Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,282 (-3%)	2mo	$445,000	$195	69
19969 N Tealstone Dr	0.52mi	2/2.5	2,406 (+2%)	2mo	$470,000	$195	68
16764 W Cathedral Rock Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	2,075 (-12%)	2mo	$450,000	$217	62
15936 W Kino Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	2,403 (+2%)	2mo	$385,000	$160	56
19745 N Mountain Sage Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,416 (+2%)	1mo	$880,000	$364	56
16019 W Kino Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,282 (-3%)	1mo	$428,000	$188	55
20706 N Glen Canyon Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,334 (-1%)	2mo	$589,000	$252	55
19739 N Mountain Sage Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,282 (-3%)	2mo	$550,000	$241	53
19228 N Guardian Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0	2,075 (-12%)	0mo	$450,000	$217	49
16446 W Century Plant Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	2,019 (-14%)	1mo	$479,000	$237	44
19532 N Copper Canyon Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	2,075 (-12%)	0mo	$425,000	$205	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-109,550
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-159,493
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,923/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,735

Max offer price $366,111

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-348	+0% $-475	+5% $-602	+10% $-730
Rent	-10% $-722	-5% $-599	+0% $-475	+5% $-351	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-360	base $-475	+0.5pp $-591	+1.0pp $-710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	44d	1	0.31mi
16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	44d	1	0.33mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	15d	1	0.76mi
19326 N Tallowood Way Unit 1546399P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1894	$2,185	$1.15	15d	1	0.84mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	18d	1	0.88mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	25d	1	0.97mi
17181 W Gable End Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2312	$3,450	$1.49	44d	1	1.00mi
21718 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2810	$5,500	$1.96	25d	1	1.00mi
21640 N Casa Royale Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,195	$1.16	17d	1	1.02mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	44d	1	1.11mi
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	44d	1	1.16mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	44d	1	1.31mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $450,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $450,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 53 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $450,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 52 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $465,000 Active 1072-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

   Expanded Mission with NEW ROOF, HVAC, fresh exterior paint, and meticulous care throughout. Desirable open floor plan offers a welcoming courtyard entry and an open layout that connects the living, dining, and kitchen spaces for easy everyday living and entertaining. Major updates include a NEW ROOF (2026), exterior paint (2024), HVAC (2020), and water heater, giving buyers peace of mind. The spacious kitchen features Corian countertops, cherry cabinets, and a sunny 4-ft bay window extension ideal for casual dining. The primary suite includes dual sinks and direct patio access, while the den with Murphy bed functions perfectly as a guest room. Outside, the expanded cool-decked patio provides a comfortable setting for relaxing or hosting after enjoying Grand's golf, fitness and social.. activies. Thoughtful touches like plantation shutters, skylights, security doors, and inside laundry enhance the home's comfort. Located near the Cimarron Recreation Center, you're close to the amenities that define the Grand lifestyle. Furniture available outside of escrow.

5. 2011-10-28
   soldstatus $304,000 Closed 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   This Mission is immaculate & ready for you to move right in. Neutral tile and carpet. Luxury kitchen features Cherry cabinets, corian counter tops w/tile back splash, premier appliance package, skylights & 4 ft. extension plus bay window in the breakfast nook. Spacious master suite includes bay window, door to bath, dual sink vanity and slider to patio. Guest suite with full bath. Inside laundry. Plantation shutters t/out. Hot water recir. Water softerner loop. Security system and security screen doors on all doors. Extended patio with room to enjoy the “land of the sun”. This house does not back up to the 303. All furniture, plus golf cart, are available outside of escrow. Please call list agent for details.

6. 2011-10-28
   soldstatus $304,000

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   This Mission is immaculate & ready for you to move right in. Neutral tile and carpet. Luxury kitchen features Cherry cabinets, corian counter tops w/tile back splash, premier appliance package, skylights & 4 ft. extension plus bay window in the breakfast nook. Spacious master suite includes bay window, door to bath, dual sink vanity and slider to patio. Guest suite with full bath. Inside laundry. Plantation shutters t/out. Hot water recir. Water softerner loop. Security system and security screen doors on all doors. Extended patio with room to enjoy the “land of the sun”. This house does not back up to the 303. All furniture, plus golf cart, are available outside of escrow. Please call list agent for details.

7. 2011-09-20
   status Pending 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   This Mission is immaculate & ready for you to move right in. Neutral tile and carpet. Luxury kitchen features Cherry cabinets, corian counter tops w/tile back splash, premier appliance package, skylights & 4 ft. extension plus bay window in the breakfast nook. Spacious master suite includes bay window, door to bath, dual sink vanity and slider to patio. Guest suite with full bath. Inside laundry. Plantation shutters t/out. Hot water recir. Water softerner loop. Security system and security screen doors on all doors. Extended patio with room to enjoy the “land of the sun”. This house does not back up to the 303. All furniture, plus golf cart, are available outside of escrow. Please call list agent for details.

8. 2011-08-03
   price $325,000 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   This Mission is immaculate & ready for you to move right in. Neutral tile and carpet. Luxury kitchen features Cherry cabinets, corian counter tops w/tile back splash, premier appliance package, skylights & 4 ft. extension plus bay window in the breakfast nook. Spacious master suite includes bay window, door to bath, dual sink vanity and slider to patio. Guest suite with full bath. Inside laundry. Plantation shutters t/out. Hot water recir. Water softerner loop. Security system and security screen doors on all doors. Extended patio with room to enjoy the “land of the sun”. This house does not back up to the 303. All furniture, plus golf cart, are available outside of escrow. Please call list agent for details.

9. 2011-02-14
   listed $350,000 Active 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   This Mission is immaculate & ready for you to move right in. Neutral tile and carpet. Luxury kitchen features Cherry cabinets, corian counter tops w/tile back splash, premier appliance package, skylights & 4 ft. extension plus bay window in the breakfast nook. Spacious master suite includes bay window, door to bath, dual sink vanity and slider to patio. Guest suite with full bath. Inside laundry. Plantation shutters t/out. Hot water recir. Water softerner loop. Security system and security screen doors on all doors. Extended patio with room to enjoy the “land of the sun”. This house does not back up to the 303. All furniture, plus golf cart, are available outside of escrow. Please call list agent for details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$2,923
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,009
• − Management: −$3,009
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$13,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 123.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+32.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $465,000 ARMLS
• 2011-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $304,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-28 Sold (MLS) $304,000 ARMLS
• 2011-09-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-08-03 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2011-02-14 Listed $350,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,923 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.