3217 53rd St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1959 10,000 sqft lot Est $212k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great 3/2/3 with open concept kitchen living area. Isolated primary bedroom. The sunroom looks out onto the backyard. Two isolated garages - 1 car; 2 car. 3217 53rd is being sold AS IS - CASH ONLY.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Sunroom
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• ISOLATED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• SUNROOM
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; Garage faces side with automatic garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (listed utilities not specified in detail)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 2,720
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Breakfast bar; Interior storage; Living room fireplace with gas starter (wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Storage (utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($146/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Miller El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 643 students, 42% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3208 47th St	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,806 (+3%)	15mo	$220,000	$78	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-28,827
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-31,046
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,115/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,772

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $61	+0% $12	+5% $-37	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-58	+0% $12	+5% $83	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $56	base $12	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3423 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2224	$1,895	$0.85	45d	1	0.39mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	45d	1	0.42mi
3236 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,524	$0.84	15d	1	0.61mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	22d	1	0.73mi
3708 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2378	$1,750	$0.74	15d	1	0.75mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	45d	1	0.98mi
2310 59th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2637	$1,900	$0.72	45d	1	1.08mi
2730 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$1,999	$0.98	22d	1	1.09mi
4314 52nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,400	$0.75	22d	1	1.11mi
4324 56th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	45d	1	1.12mi
6309 Nashville Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2168	$1,799	$0.83	45d	1	1.15mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	22d	1	1.20mi
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	45d	1	1.23mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	1.29mi
3115 32nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,200	$0.96	22d	1	1.32mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	1.32mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	1.33mi
3307 74th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2024	$1,540	$0.76	45d	1	1.36mi
2117 65th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2285	$1,975	$0.86	22d	1	1.42mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	22d	1	1.43mi
2115 66th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$1,795	$0.83	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 197-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $172,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,115 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,115 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$5,115
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$2,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $172,000 LARMLS
• 2006-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,115 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.