36445 Necarney City Rd #20 · Bayside Gardens, OR 97131

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1986 $135/sqft · 47% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is located in Necarney Mobile Home Park in the Coastal City of Nehalem. This in park MFH is located in a prime spot in the back corner with a large backyard setting, offering a gardening area, several parking spots and a tool shed. The home is a double wide with a front handicap ramp leading to the front door, which features a covered patio area. There is also a covered deck in the back that the seller is currently using as a cat condo area. The home has a brand new roof, updated features throughout and a handicapped accessible walk-in shower/tub combo in the primary bedroom. HOA covers sewer & water and is appx $762 per month. Please reach out to the listing agent for more information.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 61 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $160,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$384,691) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#133 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.53%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,691
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -58.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34705 Neptune Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	20mo	$368,100	$310	60
35190 The Glade	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	12mo	$304,300	$226	60
11630 Ernst Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	5mo	$320,000	$308	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,877
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,455
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97131

• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $160,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-04-08
   listed $160,000 Active 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Property is located in Necarney Mobile Home Park in the Coastal City of Nehalem. This in park MFH is located in a prime spot in the back corner with a large backyard setting, offering a gardening area, several parking spots and a tool shed. The home is a double wide with a front handicap ramp leading to the front door, which features a covered patio area. There is also a covered deck in the back that the seller is currently using as a cat condo area. The home has a brand new roof, updated features throughout and a handicapped accessible walk-in shower/tub combo in the primary bedroom. HOA covers sewer & water and is appx $762 per month.

10. 2026-04-08
    listed $160,000 Active 649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    Property is located in Necarney Mobile Home Park in the Coastal City of Nehalem. This in park MFH is located in a prime spot in the back corner with a large backyard setting, offering a gardening area, several parking spots and a tool shed. The home is a double wide with a front handicap ramp leading to the front door, which features a covered patio area. There is also a covered deck in the back that the seller is currently using as a cat condo area. The home has a brand new roof, updated features throughout and a handicapped accessible walk-in shower/tub combo in the primary bedroom. HOA covers sewer & water and is appx $762 per month.

11. 2026-04-08
    listed $160,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    Property is located in Necarney Mobile Home Park in the Coastal City of Nehalem. This in park MFH is located in a prime spot in the back corner with a large backyard setting, offering a gardening area, several parking spots and a tool shed. The home is a double wide with a front handicap ramp leading to the front door, which features a covered patio area. There is also a covered deck in the back that the seller is currently using as a cat condo area. The home has a brand new roof, updated features throughout and a handicapped accessible walk-in shower/tub combo in the primary bedroom. HOA covers sewer & water and is appx $762 per month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$360
• After-tax cash flow: $1,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Bayside Gardens

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #7684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayside Gardens, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,442

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.60%
• Current HPI: 217.2765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 OCMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $259 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.