340 Old Mill Rd #221 · Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$560,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

San Vicente Triplewide home on a corner lot with great mountain views! This gated community for adults 55+ has a year-round heated pool & spa, tennis & pickleball courts, clubhouse with library and private gym. This home offers over 1,650 sq. ft. of living space on one level. Front living & dining rooms with vaulted ceilings & mountain views. Spacious kitchen with breakfast bar opens to a large family room with sliding door to view deck. Primary suite with walk-in closet and bath with dual vanities. Second bedroom has its own access to guest bath. Separate laundry room. New storage building. Space rent is $779 per month and includes water, sewer, trash & recycling and use of all park amenities. Taxes just $122 per year to the buyer!!! Occupied, by appt. only.

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• View deck
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• VIEW DECK
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• YEAR-ROUND HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with limitations
• HOA & community: Association present; Community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, gym, tennis courts, game room, greenbelt, guest parking, and RV/boat storage; Association fees include water, trash, and common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 3 carport spaces; Inside entrance; Attached garage
• Utilities: Private water system; Sewer hookup
• Home design: Contemporary style; Single-story; Triple-wide manufactured home (Golden West)
• Construction: Wood siding and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Pier and post foundation; Manufactured home dimensions approximately 24 + 8 ft wide by 60 ft long
• Exterior features: Drought-tolerant landscaping; Shed(s); Mountain and setting views; Level and sloped-up areas; Corner lot; Near public transit

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range / gas stove
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the ground floor; Additional family room
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: In-unit laundry room with gas hookup
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (in unit) with gas hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $504k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $449k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $449k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Hope Elementary (269 students, 43% FRL); La Colina Junior High (900 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $435k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $449,003 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $71,620
• Equity at exit: $282,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $255,720
• Equity at exit: $460,897

Cash invested: $156,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93110

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$700 /mo · $8,400/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$943
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,983

Max offer price $503,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-196	+0% $-389	+5% $-583	+10% $-776
Rent	-10% $-744	-5% $-567	+0% $-389	+5% $-212	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-247	base $-389	+0.5pp $-534	+1.0pp $-682

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,000
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4099 Foothill Rd Santa Barbara, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1450	$4,200	$2.90	15d	2	0.34mi
4120 Via Andorra Unit A Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$5,950	$4.09	25d	1	0.39mi
4632 Tajo Dr Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.0	1251	$5,150	$4.12	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $560,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 11 d/yr ≥83°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,369
• − Property taxes: −$8,400
• − Insurance: −$3,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,310
• − Management: −$4,310
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable loss: −$14,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Eastern Goleta Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eastern Goleta Valley, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 34,619
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,436
• Household income: $129,209
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Current HPI: 323.0805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+543.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $560,000 SBMLS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (MLS) $435,000 SBMLS
• 2024-05-06 Pending — SBMLS
• 2024-05-01 Contingent — SBMLS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $479,000 SBMLS
• 2021-05-19 Sold (MLS) $270,000 SBMLS
• 2021-03-03 Contingent — SBMLS
• 2021-01-22 Listed $289,000 SBMLS
• 2021-01-01 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2020-09-29 Price Changed $279,000 SBMLS
• 2020-08-25 Price Changed $289,900 SBMLS
• 2020-08-23 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2020-08-17 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2020-02-16 Listed $299,000 SBMLS
• 2019-12-24 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2019-10-03 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2019-10-02 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2019-07-10 Price Changed $299,000 SBMLS
• 2019-05-06 Listed $324,500 SBMLS
• 1996-03-15 Sold (MLS) $81,000 SBMLS
• 1996-03-08 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 1993-12-11 Listed $87,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

-24.7%/yr

Latest (2021): $57 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.