The Cypress Trail Plan · Lakeland, FL 33805

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Home in Ten Rocks! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 896 sq ft home features an open-concept layout connecting the living room and kitchen for easy everyday living. The primary bedroom offers a private ensuite bath, spacious closet, and comfortable retreat. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, a home office, gym, storage, or kids' rooms. Call today to schedule your appointment!

Key facts

• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900; Inventory type: Plan

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Plan name: The Cypress Trail
• Construction: 896 living area (plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 3925 N Combee Rd, Lakeland FL 33805

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (The Cypress Trail)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.69%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $35,156
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $82,616
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33805

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $870	-5% $842	+0% $814	+5% $787	+10% $759
Rent	-10% $678	-5% $746	+0% $814	+5% $883	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $835	base $814	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5275 Long Lake Cir Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,815	$1.69	15d	13	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $9,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $7,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand new home in Ten Rocks offers a good condition with a good condition score of 75. It requires minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace standard flooring with hardwood or tile — High-quality flooring improves both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrade kitchen cabinetry and appliances — Modern kitchen updates attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology enhances convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace standard flooring with hardwood or tile — High-quality flooring improves both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen cabinetry and appliances — Modern kitchen updates attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology enhances convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,751
• Household income: $62,661
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1179.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.44%
• Current HPI: 372.7317
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B