Santo Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$348,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,637 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an inviting open-concept layout on the first floor, featuring access to a covered patio for optimal entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Lakes for kayaking
• Swimming pool
• Lakes for fishing

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• LAKES FOR FISHING
• LAKES FOR KAYAKING
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• LOCAL DINING
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $348,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $420,821.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $307,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,821
• List price: $348,990
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26110 Hazel Summit Dr	0.01mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,731 (+4%)	1mo	$372,740	$136	88
26026 Hazel Summit Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (-3%)	2mo	$382,190	$150	86
26106 Hazel Summit Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+6%)	0mo	$430,990	$154	82
6618 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,731 (+4%)	1mo	$351,090	$129	68
6714 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,794 (+6%)	1mo	$381,290	$136	65
26334 Snowpeak Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,792 (+6%)	1mo	$424,990	$152	64
6722 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.34mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,902 (+10%)	1mo	$410,690	$142	60
6626 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,902 (+10%)	1mo	$399,340	$138	57
6306 Emerald Clover Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (-3%)	0mo	$363,990	$143	56
6730 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (-14%)	0mo	$334,990	$148	56
26311 Forest Brush Lane Ln	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,947 (+12%)	1mo	$459,999	$156	54
6302 Emerald Clover Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+6%)	0mo	$431,990	$155	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-107,118
• Equity at exit: $62,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-166,581
• Equity at exit: $36,385

Cash invested: $117,830 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 68 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $354,990 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,312/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,681

Max offer price $352,825

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-324	+0% $-470	+5% $-615	+10% $-761
Rent	-10% $-714	-5% $-592	+0% $-470	+5% $-348	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-258	-0.5pp $-363	base $-470	+0.5pp $-579	+1.0pp $-690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,205
• Closing costs: $12,625
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	62d	1	0.67mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	39d	1	0.67mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	0d	1	0.67mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	93d	1	0.75mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	93d	1	0.81mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	13d	1	0.95mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	40d	1	0.95mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	32d	1	0.95mi
6303 Golden Seaton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,350	$1.23	11d	1	1.03mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.07mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	66d	1	1.07mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	93d	1	1.13mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	93d	1	1.22mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	0d	1	1.24mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	62d	1	1.29mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,375	$1.04	21d	1	1.31mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	1.32mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	39d	1	1.32mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	1.32mi
3060 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.33mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.34mi
3025 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,798	$1.53	54d	1	1.35mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,275	$1.09	21d	1	1.35mi
3013 Pearl Coastline Ln Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,995	$1.61	73d	1	1.36mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	47d	1	1.41mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	53d	1	1.45mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	1.47mi
5810 Dry Brush Pl Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2096	$2,200	$1.05	39d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $348,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $348,990 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $347,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $347,990 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $347,990 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $347,990 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $347,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $347,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $347,990 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $347,990 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $347,990 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $347,990 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $347,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $347,990 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $347,990 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $352,990 Active 156 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 153 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $352,990 Active 152 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $352,990 Active 151 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $369,990 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $369,990 Active 149 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $369,990 Active 148 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $369,990 Active 147 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $375,990 Active 146 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $375,990 Active 145 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $375,990 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $375,990 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $375,990 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $375,990 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $375,990 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $375,990 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $375,990 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $375,990 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $375,990 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $375,990 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $375,990 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $375,990 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $375,990 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $375,990 Active 128 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $375,990 Active 127 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $375,990 Active 124 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $375,990 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $389,990 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $389,990 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,990 Active 114 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,990 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 109 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,573
• − Property taxes: −$6,312
• − Insurance: −$2,104
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,963
• − Management: −$2,963
• − Depreciation: −$12,242
• Taxable loss: −$13,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern open-concept layout and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Freshens up the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $389,990 Zillow