1021 Saralvo Rd · Waxahachie, TX 76065

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1982 0.79 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living in this home that features an open floor plan with spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and storage, making it the heart of the home. Enjoy outdoor living with generous decks in both the front and back—ideal for relaxing mornings, evening sunsets, or hosting family and friends. The layout provides a comfortable flow throughout the home with great natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making errands and entertainment just minutes away. A wonderful opportunity for comfortable living in a great location. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including taxes, exemptions, sq footage, schools, etc. Property will be sold AS IS

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Great natural light
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GENEROUS DECKS
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.3% in Waxahachie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
• Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $24,599
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $97,075
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $869	-5% $812	+0% $755	+5% $698	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $565	-5% $660	+0% $755	+5% $850	+10% $944
Rate	-1.0pp $838	-0.5pp $797	base $755	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4264 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,150	$1.17	44d	1	1.45mi
4267 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,450	$1.33	44d	1	1.45mi
4267 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,450	$1.33	5d	1	1.45mi
4259 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,315	$1.26	44d	1	1.47mi
4259 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,315	$1.26	16d	1	1.47mi
4256 Clovis Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,325	$1.26	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $165,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active Option Contract 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active Option Contract 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $179,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this home that features an open floor plan with spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and storage, making it the heart of the home. Enjoy outdoor living with generous decks in both the front and back—ideal for relaxing mornings, evening sunsets, or hosting family and friends. The layout provides a comfortable flow throughout the home with great natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making errands and entertainment just minutes away. A wonderful opportunity for comfortable living in a great location. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including taxes, exemptions, sq footage, schools, etc. Property will be sold AS IS

17. 2026-04-23
    price $185,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this home that features an open floor plan with spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and storage, making it the heart of the home. Enjoy outdoor living with generous decks in both the front and back—ideal for relaxing mornings, evening sunsets, or hosting family and friends. The layout provides a comfortable flow throughout the home with great natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making errands and entertainment just minutes away. A wonderful opportunity for comfortable living in a great location. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including taxes, exemptions, sq footage, schools, etc. Property will be sold AS IS

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $189,000 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this home that features an open floor plan with spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and storage, making it the heart of the home. Enjoy outdoor living with generous decks in both the front and back—ideal for relaxing mornings, evening sunsets, or hosting family and friends. The layout provides a comfortable flow throughout the home with great natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making errands and entertainment just minutes away. A wonderful opportunity for comfortable living in a great location. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. buyers and buyers agents to verify all information including taxes, exemptions, sq footage, schools, etc. Property will be sold AS IS

19. 2025-12-18
    historical
20. 2025-12-02
    price $188,000
21. 2025-11-25
    price $190,000
22. 2025-11-11
    listed $195,000 Active
23. 2025-11-03
    historical
24. 2025-10-27
    price $210,000
25. 2025-10-13
    price $234,900
26. 2025-10-04
    listed $239,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,641
• After-tax cash flow: $7,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waxahachie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844730
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,434
• Composite: 39.14/100
• National rank: #4034
• State rank: #253 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waxahachie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2592

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 67,417
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $188,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $234,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $239,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.