8335 Horseshoe Dr · Kemp, TX 75143

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 0.35 ac lot Est $223k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS-FLIPPERS-REHABERS! This charming older home has served well as a rental and now is being offered for sale. Sitting beneath scattered trees on 2 lots, this 1458 SF 3-1-1-car detached carport has the old home charm of a huge front porch for watching the world go by, original 2-inch wood floors in the living room, a spacious open Kit-Liv-Din with a Kitchen peninsula for additional seating and watching the chef. All appliances remain. A huge separate laundry is just off the Kitchen and opens to the back fenced yard. Bedrooms are carpet, Kitchen and Bath are laminate. Upgrades include a newish metal roof, attic insulation and ductwork. Tenant says a-c works fabulously. Conven

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Septic; Overhead utilities; Outside city limits
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to other units; No accessory unit; No known restrictions; Built in 1900
• Construction: Wood construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Lighting; Storage; Gray water system; Chain link fencing; Few trees; Landscaped; Level lot; Large backyard with grass; Interior lot; Easements for utilities; Located on Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; High-speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$223,074) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.5% in Kemp — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#817 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kemp Pri (503 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 54% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,074
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8668 City Lake Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+6%)	15mo	$150,000	$97	58
15689 Watson Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+15%)	5mo	$257,000	$153	57
15421 Watson Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (+14%)	4mo	$285,000	$172	55
15690 Hilltop Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+14%)	4mo	$252,000	$152	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-492
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,103
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,011/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $345	+0% $310	+5% $274	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $251	+0% $310	+5% $369	+10% $428
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $342	base $310	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8335 Horseshoe Dr Kemp, TX	3.0	1.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	8d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,011
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $3,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kemp

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #14816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8233.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-21 Listed for Rent $1,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Rental Removed $1,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed for Rent $1,500 NTREIS
• 2013-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,011 · +34.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.