18 San Salvador St · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$287,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1977 5,662 sqft lot Est $353k · 19% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

Key facts

• Private patio
• Updated kitchen
• Pools

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• ELECTRIC HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR
• POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,587/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $98k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $287k implies a 301% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Bonaire Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	89
17 Palmetto Point St	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	2mo	$382,500	$350	86
3 Bonaire Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	2mo	$370,000	$329	86
11 Palmetto Point St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$314	77
60 Biabou Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$320,000	$260	74
25 Spanish Wells St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$340,000	$276	73
6 Bimini Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-8%)	2mo	$343,000	$332	67
1 Miramar Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	62
211 Bonaire Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+12%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	52
16 Mirador Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	2mo	$335,000	$272	50
9 Port Royal Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$420,000	$341	46
1130 Dell St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-12%)	1mo	$430,000	$435	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,931
• Equity at exit: $42,793

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,006
• Equity at exit: $24,815

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,808/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $287,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $216	+0% $135	+5% $54	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $33	+0% $135	+5% $237	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $208	base $135	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	0.79mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	0.97mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	1.09mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	1.10mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.20mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	1.28mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	1.34mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $287,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $290,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 212 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $299,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

17. 2026-03-10
    price $299,999 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

18. 2026-02-04
    price $309,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

19. 2026-01-29
    price $329,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

20. 2026-01-20
    price $345,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

21. 2026-01-07
    price $359,100 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

22. 2025-12-09
    price $365,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

23. 2025-11-09
    price $372,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

24. 2025-11-04
    price $380,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

25. 2025-11-01
    listed $385,000 Active 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained single-level home in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley community, offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This bright and inviting home features a spacious layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring, and a functional kitchen complete with a brand-new microwave. The uniquely styled bathroom adds charm and character, while sliding glass doors lead to a peaceful outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Additional highlights include central air conditioning, hydronic heating, and a one-car garage. Residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, and recreational activities, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's coastal attractions.

26. 2002-05-10
    soldstatus $71,500
27. 2002-04-18
    soldstatus $71,500 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    a real good buy in todays market, clean home , most of the home is original but not abused. sale is subject to court approval. lkbx, call listing broker for combo.

28. 2001-04-06
    listed $75,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    a real good buy in todays market, clean home , most of the home is original but not abused. sale is subject to court approval. lkbx, call listing broker for combo.

29. 2001-03-27
    historical
30. 1999-12-27
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,977 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,169/yr (+$181/mo · 77.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$2,808
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$3,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $2,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+298.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $299,999 MOMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $309,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $329,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $345,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $359,100 MOMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $365,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-09 Price Changed $372,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $380,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $385,000 MOMLS
• 2002-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 2002-04-18 Sold (MLS) $71,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-04-06 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-03-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-12-27 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,808 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.