4288 Spruce Ln · Lincoln, WI 54521

$62,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 955 sqft · Manufactured · 102 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1978 Fair condition $66/sqft · 52% above area $445/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this cozy trailer at the end of the street and see everything it has to offer! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home offers low-maintenance living and peace of mind. Located just off the Highway in Northland Estates, this property stands out with its attached garage—a must-have for Wisconsin winters—and the reliability of a natural gas hookup for efficient heating. No real estate, lot, or land is included in the sale as the site is leased to the occupant for $445 per month, which covers water/sewer, road maintenance, and snow removal.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Natural gas hookup
• Garage

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NATURAL GAS HOOKUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $63k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northland Pines School District (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #189 of 342 in WI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northland Pines Elementary-Eagle River (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #490 of 1,041 statewide, top 53%, 498 students, 55% FRL); Northland Pines Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #172 of 383 statewide, top 45%, 182 students, 46% FRL); Northland Pines High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 483 statewide, top 41%, 417 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 359 units permitted in Vilas County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $435 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vilas County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $57,239 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.53%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,329
• List price: $62,900
• Delta: 52.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
973 ON Spruce Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	11mo	$55,000	$56	80
4251 Spruce Ln #9	0.08mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	20mo	$40,000	$41	73
815 Spruce Ln #41	0.08mi	2/1.0	823 (-14%)	4mo	$45,000	$55	68
4251 Spruce Ln #19	0.08mi	2/1.5	845 (-12%)	17mo	$49,900	$59	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $2,746
• Equity at exit: $9,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $19,867
• Equity at exit: $5,438

Cash invested: $17,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54521

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$445
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $62,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $220	+0% $199	+5% $177	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $145	+0% $199	+5% $252	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $215	base $199	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,725
• Closing costs: $1,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 E Wall St Eagle River, WI	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,772	$1.60	46d	65	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr
• Likely covers: watersewergassnow removal

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $62,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $62,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $62,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $62,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,900 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,900 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,900 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,900 Active 80 DOM
19. 2026-03-12
    listed $62,900 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come check out this cozy trailer at the end of the street and see everything it has to offer! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath mobile home offers low-maintenance living and peace of mind. Located just off the Highway in Northland Estates, this property stands out with its attached garage—a must-have for Wisconsin winters—and the reliability of a natural gas hookup for efficient heating. No real estate, lot, or land is included in the sale as the site is leased to the occupant for $445 per month, which covers water/sewer, road maintenance, and snow removal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,523
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$1,830
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $1,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The interior and exterior need fresh paint, new cabinets, and updated fixtures to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor flooring — carpeted and dated
• Minor interior walls — wood paneling and dated
• Minor exterior siding — white siding
• Minor windows — curtains, no visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both update bathroom fixtures — new fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both replace flooring — new flooring improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both paint exterior siding — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior
• Both replace windows — new windows improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · carpeted and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · wood paneling and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · white siding	Minor	$500–3,000
windows · curtains, no visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — new fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both replace flooring — new flooring improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior ↑
• Both replace windows — new windows improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northland Pines School District
• NCES district ID: 5503860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,251
• Composite: 32.84/100
• National rank: #5617
• State rank: #189 of 342 in WI

Livability — Lincoln

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,555

Population outlook (Vilas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,499 people
• By 2030: 19,683 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 17,559 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 15,407 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 13,010 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 10,937 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Vilas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.0% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.0pp toward R · 2008: -4.1pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.99%
• Current HPI: 169.1393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $62,900 GNMLS