12111 Maplewood Rd · Goshen, KY 40026

$364,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1978 0.34 ac lot $221/sqft · at area comps Est $353k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oldham County / Goshen ranch home for sale. 3 bed 2 bath 1629 square feet plus 2 car detached garage Award winning Oldham County schools New roof, gutters and guards (2025) Renovated bathrooms (2022) New furnace (2021) New kitchen appliances (2023) 1649sf basement - waterproofed and ready to finish Close to N Oldham Middle and Harmony Elementary

Key facts

• Radon mitigation
• Renovated baths
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHS
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD
• RADON MITIGATION
• B_DRY BASEMENT WATERPROOFING
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $120 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Located in the Lakeview Estates subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1978; Brick construction; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Basement present and unfinished
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Goshen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#152 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Oldham County (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #6 of 165 in KY (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Elementary School (math 56% / reading 59%, grade C+, #45 of 676 statewide, top 7%, 632 students, 12% FRL); North Oldham Middle School (math 51% / reading 66%, grade B, #4 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 787 students, 11% FRL); North Oldham High School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B, #2 of 254 statewide, top 0%, 995 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 402 units permitted in Oldham County in 2024 (56 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oldham County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $350,000 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,265
• List price: $364,900
• Delta: 3.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12100 Maplewood Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,649 (0%)	11mo	$385,000	$233	87
1202 Cedarbrook Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-2%)	1mo	$390,000	$241	79
12002 Valley Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	6mo	$330,000	$194	68
1107 Meadowridge Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+2%)	9mo	$324,000	$192	63
1030 Rollingwood Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (+6%)	1mo	$315,000	$181	59
12111 Hillside Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-6%)	8mo	$322,000	$207	50
1123 Meadowridge Trl	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	7mo	$336,000	$185	49
1200 Meadowridge Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-12%)	15mo	$329,900	$228	48
1103 Harmony Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	23mo	$251,000	$148	47
12106 Rosewood Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+11%)	19mo	$340,000	$186	45
13315 Trappers Xing	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+14%)	14mo	$422,300	$226	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-32,845
• Equity at exit: $54,408

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $5,101
• Equity at exit: $31,550

Cash invested: $102,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40026

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,311/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,977

Max offer price $364,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $517	+0% $414	+5% $310	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $275	+0% $414	+5% $552	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $506	base $414	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,225
• Closing costs: $10,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1606 Church Side Dr Goshen, KY	4.0	4.0	2145	$3,500	$1.63	18d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $364,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $364,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $364,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-04-25
   listed $364,900 Active 792-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,440
• − Property taxes: −$3,311
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$10,615
• Taxable loss: −$1,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$247
• After-tax cash flow: $5,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oldham County
• NCES district ID: 2104530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $84,329
• Composite: 47.29/100
• National rank: #2303
• State rank: #6 of 165 in KY

Livability — Goshen

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #7314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,192

Population outlook (Oldham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,661 people
• By 2030: 80,948 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 90,894 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 100,168 · +32.4%
• By 2075: 123,605 · +63.4%
• By 2100: 133,523 · +76.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oldham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.6) · D 37.7% · R 60.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.1pp toward D · 2008: -30.7pp · 2024: -22.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.6 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+31.1 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+30.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.96%
• Current HPI: 243.3893
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Contingent — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $364,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-02 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $364,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,311 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.