312 Millwood Rd · Lavon, TX 75166

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot $154/sqft · 9% below area Est $348k · 9% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21251698 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: community pool, playground, jogging/bike path, curbs and sidewalks
• Financial info: Second mortgage: none; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee (annually); HOA includes full use of facilities; HOA management: Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district; Energy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation and lighting; Low-flow fixtures and water-smart landscaping
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; New construction (incomplete); Planned development: Nicholson Ranch; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, rock/stone and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Tankless water heater
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; 9 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Smart home features
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Community ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,582 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,259
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: -8.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Millwood Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,068 (0%)	1mo	$320,490	$155	92
116 Millwood Rd	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,068 (0%)	3mo	$317,990	$154	88
1157 Del Rio Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,111 (+2%)	1mo	$347,990	$165	82
1152 Del Rio Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-5%)	1mo	$324,990	$165	74
102 Winterwood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,137 (+3%)	2mo	$379,990	$178	71
361 Forage Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,072 (+0%)	2mo	$318,000	$153	65
165 Winterwood Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-10%)	2mo	$389,900	$209	60
361 Yellowstar Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+3%)	3mo	$369,990	$174	59
326 W Autumn Hill Blf	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,329 (+13%)	3mo	$409,900	$176	47
252 Rosewood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-11%)	3mo	$314,900	$171	44
466 Hayes St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (-9%)	1mo	$280,000	$149	44
458 Aspen Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,314 (+12%)	2mo	$439,990	$190	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-66,610
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-77,004
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,009

Max offer price $283,382

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	44d	1	0.14mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	25d	1	0.20mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.65mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	4d	1	0.76mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	0.76mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.77mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	25d	1	0.78mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	44d	1	0.79mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	0.79mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	21d	1	0.84mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.85mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	7d	1	0.86mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	44d	1	0.87mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.89mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	3d	1	0.89mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	44d	1	0.91mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.91mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	7d	1	0.91mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	44d	1	0.94mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.95mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.95mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.95mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	15d	1	0.97mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.99mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	1.00mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	1.01mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.02mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.03mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	1.03mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	1.04mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	6d	1	1.06mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	44d	1	1.07mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	44d	1	1.11mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	44d	1	1.11mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	25d	1	1.11mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	1.17mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	1.21mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	25d	1	1.24mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	5d	1	1.40mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 576-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $317,990 Active 576-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$3,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,598
• − Management: −$2,598
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$8,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, HVAC maintenance, and kitchen appliances maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeps the kitchen in top condition for potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeps the kitchen in top condition for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $317,990 NTREIS