4652 Oak Hollow Dr #19 · Lake Sarasota, FL 34241

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,679 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1980 $643/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath villa in Bent Tree Hammocks I (NOT A +55) formal living and dining rooms, eat-in kitchen, split bedroom plan, covered, screened and carpet lanai for relaxing or added entertaining area, steps from heated pool, 2 car attached garage, bamboo laminate in kitchen, dining and entry way. Gated country club community with pastoral setting but close to everything. Ownership includes social membership at Bent Tree Golf Club. This is a true bargain, don't miss . ..

Key facts

• Corner-unit villa
• A/c system
• Expansive yard

Tags

• CORNER-UNIT VILLA
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• NEWER ROOF
• A/C SYSTEM
• SCREENED LANAI
• LOW-TRAFFIC STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoning: RSF2
• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $7,725; Total monthly fees listed as $643.75; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by Progressive Community Management; Association approval required; Annual association fee of $725 (paid annually); Monthly HOA amount listed as $60.42; Condo/quarterly fees also noted (quarterly condo fee $583 / condo fees $1,750); Association fee covers common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, general maintenance, management, and pest control; Community features include deed restrictions, pool, and golf-cart-friendly rules; Pets allowed (maximum weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story (one level); Home faces west; Slab foundation
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch with screening; Exterior lighting; Mature landscaping with trees; Wooded areas; Corner lot; Near golf course; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 691 students, 29% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.85%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,378
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,907
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,291/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$643
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $656	+0% $595	+5% $534	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $462	+0% $595	+5% $727	+10% $859
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $649	base $595	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $643 · $7,716/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $215,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,291
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,215
• − Management: −$3,215
• − HOA: −$7,716
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $4,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $6,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #6453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $225,100 Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-05 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-18 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-17 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $202,600 Public Records
• 2015-11-03 Sold (MLS) $202,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-18 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-01 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,291 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.