21215 Valley Rd · Warsaw, MO 65355

$77,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 2023 0.69 ac lot $25/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fisherman’s Paradise at the Lake of the Ozarks! Built in 2023, this impressive 30x45 shop offers the perfect setup for lake enthusiasts. With ample room to store your fishing boat, pickup, and all your lake gear, this property is ready for weekend adventures. The spacious lot also provides plenty of room to add a cabin or tiny home, with a well (community) and septic system already in place. Enjoy convenient access to the water with two community boat ramps available through the HOA. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, a place to build your dream lake home, or a base camp for year-round fishing and recreation, this property offers endless possibilities. Call today to schedul

Key facts

• Well community
• Community boat ramps
• 30x45 shop

Tags

• 30X45 SHOP
• ROOM TO STORE FISHING BOAT
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMPS
• WELL COMMUNITY
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lake Ozarks is the water body name; Subdivision: Sycamore Valley; Lot approximately 0.6887 acres (about 30,000 sq ft; dimensions 300 x 100)
• Financial info: Information not provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $300 (about $25/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered parking space, total 1 parking space)
• Security: Information not provided
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Information on foundation not provided
• Exterior features: Lake privileges; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Information not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window AC unit(s); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Electric and gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $78k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($536 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $77,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $37,252
• Equity at exit: $46,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $96,663
• Equity at exit: $81,307

Cash invested: $21,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $237/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $77,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $295	+0% $273	+5% $251	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $235	+0% $273	+5% $311	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $293	base $273	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,375
• Closing costs: $2,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $77,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $237 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 217.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,341
• − Property taxes: −$237
• − Insurance: −$388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$919
• − Management: −$919
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$2,255
• Taxable income: $2,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $2,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $77,500 WCAR
• 2025-10-14 Listed $79,900 WCAR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.