573 Ellis Rd · Rockfish, NC 28357

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on nearly an acre of peaceful rural land, this property offers the perfect opportunity to create your dream home while enjoying the charm of country living. Situated on 0.98 acres, this home currently features 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with the potential to easily be converted into a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Inside, you’ll find a solid layout with good bones and plenty of character, making it an ideal option for buyers looking to add their own personal touches and updates over time. The home is livable as-is, allowing you to move in while bringing your vision to life. Recent updates include new carpet and fresh paint, along with a new vapor barrier and new appliances. T

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• Nearly an acre

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW VAPOR BARRIER
• NEW APPLIANCES
• RECENTLY SERVICED HVAC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank or septic
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.7% in Rockfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#108 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $133k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,744
• Equity at exit: $59,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $72,530
• Equity at exit: $79,659

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28357

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $170,000 Active
2. 2026-04-08
   soldstatus $132,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$90
• After-tax cash flow: $3,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockfish

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #6802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,599

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 16% Native American 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 193.9893
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+27.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $170,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $132,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,104 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.