830 Johns Ave · Lakeside, FL 32065

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1969

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks on Nearly Half an Acre! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home sits on an impressive almost half-acre lot in the heart of Orange Park, offering the kind of elbow room and outdoor space that's increasingly hard to find at this price point. The property is primed for a full rehab, making it a fantastic canvas for investors, flippers, or a handy buyer looking to build instant equity. The expansive lot provides ample room for parking your boat, RV, or work vehicles, plus space to garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the outdoors Florida-style -- all with no HOA restrictions. Conveniently located just minutes from Blanding Blvd, this property offers quick access to shopping, resta

Key facts

• 49 acres
• Minutes from schools
• Built 1969

Tags

• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM RESTAURANTS
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS
• MINUTES FROM MEDICAL SERVICES
• 49 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Mobile home; Residential use
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.49-acre lot; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling units; No heating system listed
• Interior features: Convection oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $190k implies a 1961% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,225 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
830 Johns Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (0%)	1mo	$51,000	$76	94
432A Taylor Ave #A	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (0%)	20mo	$101,000	$150	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,895
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,931
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $268	+0% $214	+5% $160	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $145	+0% $214	+5% $284	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $263	base $214	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,370	$1.90	3d	2	0.78mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $190,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-26
    price $75,000
13. 2026-04-25
    listed $65,000 Active
14. 1979-01-01
    soldstatus $9,220

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 28.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $2,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+713.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $75,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $65,000 realMLS
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,220 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.