10922 Admiral Cove Way · Stockton, CA 95219

$529,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

5,432 sqft lot $283/sqft · 15% below area Est $623k · 15% under $260/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home makes fantastic use of available space. An open-concept floorplan seamlessly connects a modern kitchen, dining room and Great Room with convenient access to an outdoor patio. There are four bedrooms in total, including the expansive owner's suite nestled into a private corner at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Modern kitchen
• Outdoor patio
• 5,432 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• EXPANSIVE OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (39.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $319,034 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.32%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $622,576
• List price: $529,530
• Delta: -14.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10922 Admiral Cove Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,870 (0%)	0mo	$505,000	$270	100
7261 Robins Cove Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,870 (0%)	7mo	$525,000	$281	80
10113 Wayfaring Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-2%)	1mo	$500,000	$274	64
7225 Broom Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,862 (-0%)	14mo	$665,000	$357	60
6707 Oakum Way	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,969 (+5%)	4mo	$535,000	$272	57
6715 Tailwind Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,893 (+1%)	14mo	$585,000	$309	56
10537 Lake Point Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,769 (-5%)	0mo	$499,000	$282	55
10525 Lake Point Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,769 (-5%)	3mo	$493,000	$279	52
6813 Mount Elbrus Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,875 (+0%)	13mo	$655,000	$349	50
7200 Sambucus Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,077 (+11%)	8mo	$635,000	$306	42
10107 Downy Birch Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,077 (+11%)	14mo	$606,000	$292	39
6807 Mount Elbrus Way	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,597 (-15%)	10mo	$540,000	$338	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $203,261
• Equity at exit: $477,043

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $677,073
• Equity at exit: $1,028,760

Cash invested: $148,268 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,777
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$662 /mo · $7,943/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-1,399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,961

Max offer price $327,079

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,382
• Closing costs: $15,886
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10962 Admiral Cove Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,200	$1.33	14d	1	0.08mi
7017 Overlook Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,095	$1.29	43d	1	0.14mi
6831 Oakum Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2318	$3,100	$1.34	43d	1	0.45mi
10831 Larboard Ct Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2160	$3,950	$1.83	43d	1	0.53mi
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,662
• − Property taxes: −$7,943
• − Insurance: −$2,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,063
• − Management: −$3,063
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$15,405
• Taxable loss: −$26,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B