430 N Lincoln St · Marion, KS 66861

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1925 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1925

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family onsite built
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: One level; Wood fencing; Storage structure; Crawl space foundation; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Range; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($267/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#163 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion-Florence (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #37 of 169 in KS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marion Elem (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 244 students, 46% FRL); Marion Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #49 of 219 statewide, top 24%, 127 students, 47% FRL); Marion High (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #198 of 327 statewide, top 66%, 142 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $115k implies a 311% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,933 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $64,023
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $187,368
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66861

• Home prices YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   price $115,000
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2008-03-01
   soldstatus $28,000
4. 1999-05-01
   soldstatus $31,000
5. 1996-02-01
   soldstatus $31,133

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion-Florence
• NCES district ID: 2009240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,826
• Composite: 33.67/100
• National rank: #5390
• State rank: #37 of 169 in KS

Livability — Marion

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #7701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, KS
• City population: 2,929
• Population (ZIP): 2,929

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,315 people
• By 2030: 10,852 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 9,989 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 9,375 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 8,969 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 9,019 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.3% · R 73.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+46.5 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.73%
• Current HPI: 203.6912
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+269.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $115,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $125,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,133 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · -16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.