27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 33-1 · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$205,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,014 sqft · Townhouse · 128 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 2,714 sqft lot $68/sqft · at area comps Est $201k · at est. $1550/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Part time ownership! 6++ weeks out of the year! Offering 1/7 fractional ownership. The perfect resort lifestyle awaits you at The Rocks Residence Club offering equity ownership in a 1/7th fractional share (not a timeshare). Owner's share allows reservations of both three and four bedroom villas. Your villa comes impeccably furnished and finished with premium appliances including Wolf and Subzero, private plunge pool, gas fireplaces, fully outfitted kitchens and state-of-the-art electronics.The clubhouse staff includes full concierge services, complimentary continental grab and go breakfast, all day menu service available from 7am to 6pm, fitness facility, swimming pools, massage treatment rooms and so much more, to make each of your stays hassle free and exactly how you want it!

Key facts

• Fitness facility
• Gas fireplaces
• Swimming pools

Tags

• PRIVATE PLUNGE POOL
• GAS FIREPLACES
• FULLY OUTFITTED KITCHENS
• PREMIUM APPLIANCES
• FITNESS FACILITY
• SWIMMING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,812/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($178k/yr) (locally 70% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.00%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,004
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 1.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 31-5	0.06mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$61	96
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 31-1	0.06mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	2mo	$197,500	$66	95
27440 N Alma School Pkwy #101	0.12mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	4mo	$850,000	$282	91
27440 N Alma School Pkwy #136	0.00mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	12mo	$160,000	$53	90
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 38-5	0.00mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	15mo	$195,000	$65	88
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 31-3	0.00mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	17mo	$190,000	$63	86
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 38-4	0.00mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	18mo	$190,000	$63	85
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 33-2	0.06mi	3/3.0	3,014 (0%)	15mo	$171,500	$57	85
27440 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 29-1	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,917 (-3%)	13mo	$157,500	$54	84
27440 N Alma School Pkwy #140	0.06mi	3/3.0	2,917 (-3%)	15mo	$135,000	$46	80
27000 N Alma School Pkwy #2024	0.34mi	3/3.0	2,627 (-13%)	4mo	$1,300,000	$495	59
27000 N Alma School Pkwy #2008	0.34mi	3/3.0	2,627 (-13%)	16mo	$1,150,000	$438	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $171,967
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $416,926
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$1,550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,641
• Net cashflow: $3,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,755

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10931 E Whitethorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	2825	$10,995	$3.89	3d	1	0.35mi
27000 N Alma School Pkwy #1012 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2144	$9,000	$4.20	24d	1	0.37mi
27000 N Alma School Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5–3.0	2385	$7,750	$3.25	43d	3	0.38mi
27000 N Alma School Pkwy Unit 2006 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2627	$7,500	$2.85	24d	1	0.38mi
11056 E Oberlin Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2836	$9,500	$3.35	43d	1	0.44mi
11064 E Oberlin Way Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2343	$3,800	$1.62	24d	1	0.45mi
11114 E Blue Sky Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2826	$4,500	$1.59	5d	1	0.58mi
11160 E Greythorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2311	$9,000	$3.89	43d	1	0.60mi
10911 E Mark Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	3168	$4,000	$1.26	3d	1	0.61mi
26627 N 104th Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2112	$4,950	$2.34	18d	1	0.66mi
10437 E Monterra Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2145	$3,750	$1.75	5d	1	0.70mi
11362 E Dale Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	4.5	3357	$20,000	$5.96	43d	1	1.00mi
28444 N 101st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2298	$3,500	$1.52	24d	1	1.03mi
11239 E Southwind Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3184	$9,500	$2.98	43d	1	1.04mi
25836 N 104th Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	4156	$7,500	$1.80	43d	1	1.06mi
10448 E Skinner Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	3451	$17,000	$4.93	24d	1	1.07mi
10222 E Southwind Ln Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	2386	$5,500	$2.31	43d	2	1.07mi
11572 E Running Deer Trl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2810	$8,995	$3.20	43d	1	1.12mi
28990 N White Feather Ln Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5–4.5	2327	$4,625	$1.99	11d	3	1.13mi
9796 E Gamble Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2437	$10,400	$4.27	43d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,550 · $18,600/yr
• Likely covers: gaspooldoorman

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-02-10
    listed $205,000 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Part time ownership! 6++ weeks out of the year! Offering 1/7 fractional ownership. The perfect resort lifestyle awaits you at The Rocks Residence Club offering equity ownership in a 1/7th fractional share (not a timeshare). Owner's share allows reservations of both three and four bedroom villas. Your villa comes impeccably furnished and finished with premium appliances including Wolf and Subzero, private plunge pool, gas fireplaces, fully outfitted kitchens and state-of-the-art electronics.The clubhouse staff includes full concierge services, complimentary continental grab and go breakfast, all day menu service available from 7am to 6pm, fitness facility, swimming pools, massage treatment rooms and so much more, to make each of your stays hassle free and exactly how you want it!

16. 2025-06-15
    historical
17. 2024-11-15
    listed $195,000 Active
18. 2022-02-21
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
19. 2022-02-17
    status Pending
20. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
21. 2022-01-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
22. 2021-05-06
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,500
• − Management: −$7,500
• − HOA: −$18,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $38,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,264
• After-tax cash flow: $29,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a beautiful desert setting. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and painting to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both upgrading appliances — modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $205,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Sold (MLS) $230,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Sold (MLS) $230,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-05-06 Listed $240,000 ARMLS