440 Quail St · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$199,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,274 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2007 0.34 ac lot Est $337k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great for a growing Family Located in Lady Lake 4 Bedrooms 3 Bath Home Large fenced Lot with Above ground & Pool & Storage Shed. Open Living room Great Kitchen. Bonus Room for Storage or Den/Office Wood Flooring need's just a little TLC Call for Showing

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.34 acre (dimensions 88 x 166)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Paved access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Home faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace; Built area approximately 2,440 sq ft (living area 2,274 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Storage; Cleared and paved lot; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry: other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,552
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Mark Ave	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,091 (-8%)	1mo	$310,000	$148	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,884
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,730
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Shannon Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,991	$1.14	5d	1	1.10mi
1252 Vanderway Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1698	$2,050	$1.21	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-16
   listed $199,000 Active
2. 2021-08-11
   soldstatus $185,000
3. 2021-07-09
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great for a growing Family Located in Lady Lake 4 Bedrooms 3 Bath Home Large fenced Lot with Above ground & Pool & Storage Shed. Open Living room Great Kitchen. Bonus Room for Storage or Den/Office Wood Flooring need's just a little TLC Call for Showing

4. 2021-05-04
   status Pending 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great for a growing Family Located in Lady Lake 4 Bedrooms 3 Bath Home Large fenced Lot with Above ground & Pool & Storage Shed. Open Living room Great Kitchen. Bonus Room for Storage or Den/Office Wood Flooring need's just a little TLC Call for Showing

5. 2021-02-21
   listed $206,750 Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Great for a growing Family Located in Lady Lake 4 Bedrooms 3 Bath Home Large fenced Lot with Above ground & Pool & Storage Shed. Open Living room Great Kitchen. Bonus Room for Storage or Den/Office Wood Flooring need's just a little TLC Call for Showing

6. 1991-11-01
   soldstatus $27,000
7. 1989-04-01
   soldstatus $23,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $2,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+757.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-09 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-21 Listed $206,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,072 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.