416 S 5th St · Hopkins, MO 64461

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1910 7,405 sqft lot $51/sqft · 44% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming property on a corner lot featuring a detached 2-car garage and a formal dining room perfect for entertaining. A great opportunity with space and character.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Corner lot
• Detached garage

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#670 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• North Nodaway County R-VI (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #343 of 535 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Nodaway County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Nodaway County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,959 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.45%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,757
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -64.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $36,355
• Equity at exit: $24,685

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $87,744
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64461

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $483	+0% $467	+5% $451	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $426	+0% $467	+5% $508	+10% $549
Rate	-1.0pp $495	-0.5pp $481	base $467	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $54,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $69,900 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property on a corner lot featuring a detached 2-car garage and a formal dining room perfect for entertaining. A great opportunity with space and character.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $89,900 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property on a corner lot featuring a detached 2-car garage and a formal dining room perfect for entertaining. A great opportunity with space and character.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $4,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Nodaway County R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2921690
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,220
• Composite: 34.68/100
• National rank: #10063
• State rank: #343 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hopkins

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #670
• US rank: #22327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopkins, MO
• Population (ZIP): 926

Population outlook (Nodaway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,010 people
• By 2030: 21,531 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 20,360 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 19,210 · -12.7%
• By 2075: 17,711 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 16,796 · -23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Nodaway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.7) · D 27.6% · R 71.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.7 2020: R+40.5 2016: R+40.8 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $89,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $496 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.