1241 Catalina Dr · Pattison, TX 77423

$299,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,080 sqft lot $123/sqft · 51% below area $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs game room offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,680 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $611,294
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -50.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,676
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-101,979
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,713

Max offer price $272,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-83	+0% $-187	+5% $-290	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-285	+0% $-187	+5% $-89	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-111	base $-187	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $299,900 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $299,900 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

17. 2026-03-03
    listed $309,900 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs game room offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

18. 2026-02-13
    listed $309,900 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and modern design, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades the kitchen and adds value
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathrooms and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $309,900 Zillow