26455 Paradise Valley Rd #88 · Aguanga, CA 92086

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1982 $56/sqft · 9% above area Est $64k · 17% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +1.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Time to take it EASY. Just beyond the paddocks and pastures of the world-famous Lovacres thoroughbred racehorse ranch and at the foothills of Palomar Mountain, sits Quiet Oaks, a Mobile Home Community. This is likely the largest lot in the entire park as it spans a large rounded corner, allowing room for tons of gated, fenced and shaded parking, storage, and so much lovely yard, with grass, roses for days, grape vines, and more. The home is 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms, laundry room, dining area open to the kitchen, and a cozy living room with a faux fireplace. On the deck outside you even have a working SPA/jacuzzi which has been well maintained. There is a pergola just asking to be conver

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park features and surroundings include horse trails, rural setting, biking, hiking, mountainous terrain, BLM/National Forest access, foothills, riding/stables, preserve/public land, and hunting
• Financial info: Land lease amount $695/month
• HOA & community: Land lease community (Quiet Oaks) with monthly land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Quiet Oaks park
• Utilities: Private water (see remarks); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story manufactured/mobile home (22' x 56'); Estimated year built; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Foundation details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Treed, secluded lot; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level floor plan; Entry on main level; Private above-ground spa (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in an individual room (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 2.1% in Aguanga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 29/100 on livability (#1,472 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warner Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,219 of 1,400 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.63%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,989
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 17.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $97,254
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.52×
• Total profit: $241,973
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92086

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $161/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $886

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $75,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $85,000 Active 1254-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $161 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 254.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$161
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $8,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warner Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600042
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,559
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #13538
• State rank: #1219 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Aguanga

• Score: 29/100
• State rank: #1472
• US rank: #27924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,410

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Korean 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.73%
• Current HPI: 334.0631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $85,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2013): $161 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.