15-1415 14th Ave · Hawaiian Paradise Park, HI 96749

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,151 sqft · Other public records · 279 Days on market

Built 2007 1.00 ac lot $369/sqft · 8% below area Est $461k · 8% under $39/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn this home into your piece of paradise. Needs some cosmetic work to be truly a nice home for your family, or renovate and flip it. Lot of potential

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 279 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.8% in Hawaiian Paradise Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#81 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $425k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $261,846 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,608
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-34,974
• Equity at exit: $143,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-6,092
• Equity at exit: $189,659

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96749

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,288/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,442

Max offer price $310,127

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15-1398 13th Ave Unit D2 Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	43d	1	0.10mi
15-1510 14th Ave Unit A Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,900	$2.17	43d	1	0.45mi
151412 17th Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	23d	1	0.46mi
15-1551 Lokelani Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	43d	1	0.75mi
15-1539 9th St Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,450	$1.96	43d	1	0.85mi
151300 Railroad Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1401	$3,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.02mi
15-1553 24th Ave Unit B Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2025-09-11
    listed $425,000 Active 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Turn this home into your piece of paradise. Needs some cosmetic work to be truly a nice home for your family, or renovate and flip it. Lot of potential

16. 2025-08-11
    historical
17. 2025-04-14
    listed $425,000 Active
18. 2007-12-12
    historical
19. 2007-06-12
    listed $254,900
20. 2007-06-12
    listed $254,900
21. 2005-10-20
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2005-10-20
    soldstatus $80,000
23. 2005-05-02
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,288
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,514
• − Management: −$2,514
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$15,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Hawaiian Paradise Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #18406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawaiian Paradise Park, HI
• County: Hawaii County · 119,311 people
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• Population (ZIP): 19,132
• Household income: $85,399
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.87)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 33% White 24% Asian 22% Pacific Islander 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Vietnamese 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Current HPI: 183.9836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+431.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-11 Listed $425,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2025-04-14 Listed $425,000 HI Information Service
• 2007-12-12 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2007-06-12 Listed $254,900 HI Information Service
• 2007-06-12 Listed $254,900 HiCentral MLS
• 2005-10-20 Sold (MLS) $80,000 HI Information Service
• 2005-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-02 Listed $80,000 HI Information Service

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,288 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.