300 SW 3rd St · Hubbard, TX 76648

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 2004 10,498 sqft lot ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

New Roof just installed May 2026! 4 Bedroom 2 bathroom home on a large corner lot with mature trees. Located in the quiet town of Hubbard, TX, which is just a short drive to Waco or Hillsboro. The home has a large living room, ample sized kitchen with eating area, and a room that was used as a small bar, but could also make a great home office.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Large living room
• Ample sized kitchen

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• AMPLE SIZED KITCHEN
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Transaction type: For Sale; Possession at closing/funding; Listing agreement: Exclusive right to sell
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Built in 2004; Fiberglass siding
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Hubbard Ot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric fireplace in living room
• Interior features: Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#839 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hubbard ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hubbard El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 218 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.20%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $67,914
• Equity at exit: $81,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $182,466
• Equity at exit: $168,767

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76648

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 N Magnolia Ave Hubbard, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,550	$1.08	12d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 346-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   status $99,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-05-25
    status Pending
11. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Option Contract
12. 2026-04-22
    price $99,000
13. 2026-02-09
    price $135,000
14. 2025-10-06
    price $145,000
15. 2025-09-16
    listed $159,000 Active
16. 2006-05-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$641
• After-tax cash flow: $3,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hubbard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823730
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,664
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6243
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hubbard

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #839
• US rank: #15119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hubbard, TX
• City population: 2,922
• Population (ZIP): 2,922

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.95%
• Current HPI: 223.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2006-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,034 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.