4B Cottage Ct · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition 4,356 sqft lot $143/sqft · 10% below area Est $221k · 10% under $185/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Crestwood Village V adult community, this home offers a peaceful setting within a well-established neighborhood. The interior features original finishes and includes a bright three-season room, perfect for enjoying extra living space throughout much of the year. The home also offers attic storage, a one-car garage, and driveway parking. With a low monthly HOA fee and a convenient location within the community, this property presents a great opportunity in Crestwood Village V.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,714
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -9.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 B Birchwood Ct	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,392 (0%)	2mo	$200,000	$144	93
5 Bayberry Ln Unit A	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,392 (0%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	89
12B Juniper Ln #50	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,544 (+11%)	4mo	$155,000	$100	72
16 Hudson Pkwy	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,318 (-5%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	70
12 Birchwood Dr Unit A	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-15%)	4mo	$250,000	$211	69
3B Drake St #53	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,392 (0%)	3mo	$210,000	$151	69
9 Greenleaf St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,193 (-14%)	4mo	$235,000	$197	66
400 Schoolhouse Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,563 (+12%)	6mo	$485,000	$310	57
1-B Pilgrim Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+12%)	3mo	$163,000	$104	50
7-B Drake St Sec 53	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,544 (+11%)	3mo	$220,000	$142	50
14 A Yorktowne Pkwy	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+11%)	4mo	$210,000	$136	50
107 Hudson Pkwy Unit B	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,558 (+12%)	6mo	$215,000	$138	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,528
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,015
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	43d	1	0.14mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	0.48mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.69mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.77mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.85mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	20d	1	0.85mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	1.30mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	43d	1	1.30mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $185 · $2,220/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    listed $199,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Crestwood Village V adult community, this home offers a peaceful setting within a well-established neighborhood. The interior features original finishes and includes a bright three-season room, perfect for enjoying extra living space throughout much of the year. The home also offers attic storage, a one-car garage, and driveway parking. With a low monthly HOA fee and a convenient location within the community, this property presents a great opportunity in Crestwood Village V.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $1,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding and roof repairs, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Moderate Roof — Minor damage or wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Roof repair — Fixes structural issue and improves property value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Enhances property value and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Roof · Minor damage or wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Roof repair — Fixes structural issue and improves property value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Enhances property value and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $199,000 MOMLS